IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/240.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Stijn van Weezel

    () (School of Economics, University College Dublin)

Abstract

Despite the surge in quantitative research examining the link between climate variability and conflict, a lot of uncertainty exists concerning whether there is a link. One shortcoming of the current literature is that it focuses mainly on statistical inference in order to establish causation with little attention for the predictive performance of the model. In contrast, this study extends the current literature by focusing on the predictive accuracy of a model linking droughts to communal conflict using data for Nigeria for the period 2006-2014. Using a number of different model specifications and estimation methods to test the robustness of the results, the analysis shows that although the regression results show a positive link between the occurrence of droughts and communal conflict, the predictive accuracy of the model is relatively low. In contrast, accounting for the temporal and spatial dynamics of conflict leads to better forecasts compared to the climate variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Stijn van Weezel, 2017. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 240, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hicn.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/HiCN-WP-240.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    2. Nils B. Weidmann, 2015. "On the Accuracy of Media-based Conflict Event Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(6), pages 1129-1149, September.
    3. Jeroen Klomp & Erwin Bulte, 2013. "Climate change, weather shocks, and violent conflict: a critical look at the evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 63-78, November.
    4. Ola Olsson, 2016. "Climate Change and Market Collapse: A Model Applied to Darfur," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Jean-François Maystadt & Margherita Calderone & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 649-671.
    6. Gerdis Wischnath & Halvard Buhaug, 2014. "On climate variability and civil war in Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 709-721, February.
    7. Bleaney, Michael & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2016. "State history, historical legitimacy and modern ethnic diversity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 159-170.
    8. Franzese, Robert J. & Hays, Jude C., 2007. "Spatial Econometric Models of Cross-Sectional Interdependence in Political Science Panel and Time-Series-Cross-Section Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(02), pages 140-164, March.
    9. Michael D Ward & Brian D Greenhill & Kristin M Bakke, 2010. "The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 363-375, July.
    10. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 23969, June.
    11. Jean-François Maystadt & Giacomo De Luca & Petros G. Sekeris & John Ulimwengu, 2014. "Mineral resources and conflicts in DRC: a case of ecological fallacy?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 721-749.
    12. Shor, Boris & Bafumi, Joseph & Keele, Luke & Park, David, 2007. "A Bayesian Multilevel Modeling Approach to Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(02), pages 165-181, March.
    13. Kostadis Jason Papaioannou & Angus Edwin Dalrymple-Smith, 2015. "Political instability and discontinuity in Nigeria: The pre-colonial past and public goods provision under colonial and post-colonial political orders," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 40-53, April.
    14. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
    15. Ward, Michael D. & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2002. "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 244-260, June.
    16. HÃ¥vard Hegre & Nicholas Sambanis, 2006. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(4), pages 508-535, August.
    17. Nils B. Weidmann & Jan Ketil Roslashd & Lars-Erik Cederman, 2010. "Representing ethnic groups in space: A new dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 491-499, July.
    18. Nathan Danneman & Emily Hencken Ritter, 2014. "Contagious Rebellion and Preemptive Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(2), pages 254-279, March.
    19. repec:gam:jgames:v:7:y:2016:i:1:p:9:d:66071 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Nils B. Weidmann & Michael D. Ward, 2010. "Predicting Conflict in Space and Time," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 883-901, December.
    21. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nigeria; droughts; communal conflict; cross-validation;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alia Aghajanian) or () or () or (). General contact details of provider: http://www.hicn.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.