The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
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- Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
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- Beger, Andreas & Dorff, Cassy L. & Ward, Michael D., 2016. "Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-111.
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Keywordscivil conflicts; cross-validation; prediction; statistical models;
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