The wisdom of crowds: Applying Condorcet’s jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.12.002
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- Vincenz Frey & Arnout van de Rijt, 2021. "Social Influence Undermines the Wisdom of the Crowd in Sequential Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4273-4286, July.
- Liu, Yezheng & Ye, Chang & Sun, Jianshan & Jiang, Yuanchun & Wang, Hai, 2021. "Modeling undecided voters to forecast elections: From bandwagon behavior and the spiral of silence perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 461-483.
- Leiter, Debra & Murr, Andreas & Rascón Ramírez, Ericka & Stegmaier, Mary, 2018. "Social networks and citizen election forecasting: The more friends the better," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 235-248.
- Khan, Urmee & Lieli, Robert P., 2018.
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- Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2016. "Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries," Working Papers 201610, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2017. "Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries," Working Papers 201711, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Temporão, Mickael & Dufresne, Yannick & Savoie, Justin & Linden, Clifton van der, 2019. "Crowdsourcing the vote: New horizons in citizen forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-10.
- Steve Alpern & Bo Chen, 2022. "Optimizing voting order on sequential juries: a median voter theorem and beyond," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 58(3), pages 527-565, April.
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Keywords
Citizen forecasting; Combining forecasts; Condorcet’s jury theorem; Election forecasting; Election surveys; Weighting;All these keywords.
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