Social Influence Undermines the Wisdom of the Crowd in Sequential Decision Making
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3713
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Ben Greiner, 2015. "Subject pool recruitment procedures: organizing experiments with ORSEE," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 114-125, July.
- Alpern, Steve & Chen, Bo, 2017. "The importance of voting order for jury decisions by sequential majority voting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 1072-1081.
- Richard P. Larrick & Jack B. Soll, 2006. "Erratum--Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 309-310, February.
- Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2003. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1310-1326, October.
- Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
- Hunt Allcott & Matthew Gentzkow, 2017. "Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election," NBER Working Papers 23089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nofer, Michael & Hinz, Oliver, 2014. "Are Crowds on the Internet Wiser than Experts? The Case of a Stock Prediction Community," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 69935, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
- Berno Buechel & Stefan Klößner & Martin Lochmüller & Heiko Rauhut, 2020.
"The strength of weak leaders: an experiment on social influence and social learning in teams,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 259-293, June.
- Berno Büchel & Stefan Klößner & Martin Lochmüller & Heiko Rauhut, 2018. "The Strength of Weak Leaders - An Experiment on Social Influence and Social Learning in Teams," Working Papers 2018.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Büchel, Berno & Klößner, Stefan & Lochmüller, Martin & Rauhut, Heiko, 2018. "The Strength of Weak Leaders - An Experiment on Social Influence and Social Learning in Teams," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 268729, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:2:p:91-105 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992.
"A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
- Gabriel Madirolas & Gonzalo G de Polavieja, 2015. "Improving Collective Estimations Using Resistance to Social Influence," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
- Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1985. "Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 427-442, April.
- Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
- Albert E. Mannes, 2009. "Are We Wise About the Wisdom of Crowds? The Use of Group Judgments in Belief Revision," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(8), pages 1267-1279, August.
- Friedemann Polzin & Helen Toxopeus & Erik Stam, 2018.
"The wisdom of the crowd in funding: information heterogeneity and social networks of crowdfunders,"
Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 251-273, February.
- F.H.J. Polzin & H.S. Toxopeus & F.C. Stam, 2016. "The wisdom of the crowd in funding:: Information heterogeneity and social networks of crowdfunder," Working Papers 16-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Gale, Douglas, 1996. "What have we learned from social learning?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 617-628, April.
- See, Kelly E. & Morrison, Elizabeth W. & Rothman, Naomi B. & Soll, Jack B., 2011. "The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 272-285.
- Kevin E. Levay & Jeremy Freese & James N. Druckman, 2016. "The Demographic and Political Composition of Mechanical Turk Samples," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(1), pages 21582440166, March.
- Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Phillip E. Pfeifer, 2013. "The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1383-1398, December.
- Christian Ganser & Marc Keuschnigg, 2018. "Social Influence Strengthens Crowd Wisdom Under Voting," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(06n07), pages 1-23, September.
- Julia A. Minson & Jennifer S. Mueller & Richard P. Larrick, 2018. "The Contingent Wisdom of Dyads: When Discussion Enhances vs. Undermines the Accuracy of Collaborative Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4177-4192, September.
- Ethan Bernstein & Jesse Shore & David Lazer, 2018. "How intermittent breaks in interaction improve collective intelligence," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 115(35), pages 8734-8739, August.
- Ladha, Krishna K., 1995. "Information pooling through majority-rule voting: Condorcet's jury theorem with correlated votes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-372, May.
- Jacob K. Goeree & Thomas R. Palfrey & Brian W. Rogers & Richard D. McKelvey, 2007.
"Self-Correcting Information Cascades,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(3), pages 733-762.
- Goeree, Jacob & Palfrey, Thomas & Rogers, Brian & McKelvey, Richard, 2004. "Self-correcting Information Cascades," Working Papers 1197, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Jacob K. Goeree & Thomas R. Palfrey & Brian W. Rogers & Richard D. McKelvey, 2006. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000211, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Jacob Goeree & Thomas Palfrey & Brian Rogers, 2004. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000153, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
- Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
- Murr, Andreas E., 2015. "The wisdom of crowds: Applying Condorcet’s jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 916-929.
- Eric K. Kelley & Paul C. Tetlock, 2013. "How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1229-1265, June.
- Hunt Allcott & Matthew Gentzkow, 2017. "Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 211-236, Spring.
- Richard P. Larrick & Jack B. Soll, 2006. "Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 111-127, January.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Tang, Ming & Liao, Huchang, 2024. "Group efficiency and individual fairness tradeoff in making wise decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- De Filippis, Roberta & Guarino, Antonio & Jehiel, Philippe & Kitagawa, Toru, 2022.
"Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
- Roberta De Filippis & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2018. "Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment," CeMMAP working papers CWP39/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Roberta de Filippis & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2022. "Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment," Post-Print halshs-03229978, HAL.
- Roberta de Filippis & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2022. "Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03229978, HAL.
- Roberta De Filippis & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2020. "Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment," CeMMAP working papers CWP60/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- March, Christoph & Ziegelmeyer, Anthony, 2020.
"Altruistic observational learning,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
- Christoph March & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2016. "Altruistic Observational Learning," CESifo Working Paper Series 5792, CESifo.
- Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
- Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008.
"Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets,"
MPRA Paper
9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christoph March & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2018. "Excessive Herding in the Laboratory: The Role of Intuitive Judgments," CESifo Working Paper Series 6855, CESifo.
- Davis, Brent J., 2017. "An experiment on behavior in social learning games with collective preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 93-95.
- Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2009.
"Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 206-233, March.
- Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2008. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," IMF Working Papers 2008/141, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2008. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," Working Papers 2009-16, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Antonio Guarino & Marco Cipriani, 2008. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," WEF Working Papers 0047, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
- Jacob K. Goeree & Leeat Yariv, 2015. "Conformity in the lab," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 15-28, July.
- Bartosz Wilczek, 2020. "Misinformation and herd behavior in media markets: A cross-national investigation of how tabloids’ attention to misinformation drives broadsheets’ attention to misinformation in political and business," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-22, November.
- Feri, Francesco & Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A. & Ponti, Giovanni & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2011.
"Error cascades in observational learning: An experiment on the Chinos game,"
Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 136-146, September.
- Francesco Feri & Miguel A. Melendez-Jimenez & Giovanni Ponti & Fernando Vega Redondo, 2008. "Error Cascades in Observational Learning: An Experiment on the Chinos Game," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/14, European University Institute.
- Francesco Feri & Miguel Ángel Meléndez-Jiménez & Giovanni Ponti & Fernando Vega Redondo, 2008. "Error Cascades in Observational Learning: An Experiment on the Chinos Game," Working Papers 2008-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
- Cao, Qian & Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei, 2019. "The role of overconfidence in overweighting private information: Does gender matter?," EconStor Preprints 203448, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lohse, Johannes & McDonald, Rebecca, 2021. "Absolute groupishness and the demand for information," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242454, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Germano, Fabrizio & Sobbrio, Francesco, 2020.
"Opinion dynamics via search engines (and other algorithmic gatekeepers),"
Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
- Fabrizio Germano & Francesco Sobbrio, 2016. "Opinion dynamics via search engines (and other algorithmic gatekeepers)," Economics Working Papers 1552, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2018.
- Fabrizio Germano & Francesco Sobbrio, 2018. "Opinion Dynamics via Search Engines (and other Algorithmic Gatekeepers)," Papers 1810.06973, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
- Fabrizio Germano & Francesco Sobbrio, 2017. "Opinion Dynamics via Search Engines (and other Algorithmic Gatekeepers)," Working Papers 962, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Fabrizio Germano & Francesco Sobbrio, 2017. "Opinion Dynamics via Search Engines (and other Algorithmic Gatekeepers)," CESifo Working Paper Series 6541, CESifo.
- Asanov, Igor, 2021. "Bandit cascade: A test of observational learning in the bandit problem," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 150-171.
- Yiangos Papanastasiou, 2020. "Fake News Propagation and Detection: A Sequential Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1826-1846, May.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2021.
"Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment,"
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 163-197, August.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2017. "Information redundancy neglect versus overconfidence: a social learning experiment," CeMMAP working papers 32/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2017. "Information redundancy neglect versus overconfidence: a social learning experiment," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2019. "Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment," PSE Working Papers halshs-02183322, HAL.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2019. "Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment," Working Papers halshs-02183322, HAL.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2021. "Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03325779, HAL.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2021. "Information Redundancy Neglect versus Overconfidence: A Social Learning Experiment," Post-Print halshs-03325779, HAL.
- Marco Angrisani & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2018. "Information redundancy neglect versus overconfidence: a social learning experiment," CeMMAP working papers CWP63/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Corazzini, Luca & Greiner, Ben, 2007.
"Herding, social preferences and (non-)conformity,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 74-80, October.
- Luca Corazzini & Ben Greiner, 2005. "Herding, Social Preferences and (Non-) Conformity," Working Paper Series in Economics 21, University of Cologne, Department of Economics, revised 24 Jan 2007.
- Christophe Bisière & Jean-Paul Décamps & Stefano Lovo, 2015.
"Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating, and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1378-1397, June.
- Lovo, Stefno & Bisière, Christophe & Décamps, Jean-Paul, 2009. "Risk attitude, beliefs updating and the information content of trades: an experiment," HEC Research Papers Series 917, HEC Paris.
- Stefano Lovo & Christophe Bisière & Jean-Paul Decamps, 2009. "Risk attitude, beliefs updating and the information content of trades : an experiment," Working Papers hal-00489272, HAL.
- Bisière, Christophe & Décamps, Jean-Paul & Lovo, Stefano, 2009. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," IDEI Working Papers 552, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised May 2012.
- Christophe Bisière & Jean-Paul Décamps & Stefano Lovo, 2015. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating, and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," Post-Print halshs-01400243, HAL.
- Bisière, Christophe & Décamps, Jean-Paul & Lovo, Stefano, 2009. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," TSE Working Papers 09-036, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised May 2012.
- Penczynski, Stefan P., 2017. "The nature of social learning: Experimental evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 148-165.
More about this item
Keywords
wisdom of the crowd; social influence; sequential decision making; information cascades; team performance;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:67:y:2021:i:7:p:4273-4286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.