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Climate Change and Market Collapse: A Model Applied to Darfur

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  • Ola Olsson

    (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, 40530 Gothenburg, Sweden)

Abstract

A recurring argument in the global debate is that climate deterioration is likely to make social conflicts over diminishing natural resources more common in the future. The exact mechanism behind such a development has so far not been successfully characterized in the literature. In this paper, we present a general model of a community populated by farmers and herders who can either divide up land in a market economy or in autarky. The key insight from our model is that decreasing resources can make trade between the two groups collapse, which in turn makes each group’s welfare independent of that of the other. Predictions from the model are then applied to the conflict in Darfur. Our analysis suggests that three decades of drought in the area can at least partially explain the observed disintegration of markets and the subsequent rise of social tensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ola Olsson, 2016. "Climate Change and Market Collapse: A Model Applied to Darfur," Games, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:7:y:2016:i:1:p:9-:d:66071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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