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Citations for "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting"

by Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger

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  1. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  2. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Working Paper Series 0365, European Central Bank.
  3. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
  5. C. Minodier, 2010. "First results series or last available series: which series to use? A real-time illustration for the forecasting of French quarterly GDP growth," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2010-01, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  6. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fackler, James S., 2002. "Comment on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 559-562, December.
  9. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
  10. Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56.
  11. Frédérique Bec & Matteo Mogliani, 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions : Information or Forecast Combinations ?," Working Papers 2013-21, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  12. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.
  13. Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
  14. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
  15. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  16. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
  17. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach," KOF Working papers 15-375, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  19. Fátima Cardoso & Cláudia Duarte, 2009. "Data Revisions: The Case of Portuguese Exports and Imports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  20. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10065, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  21. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  22. Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Tony Yates, 2004. "Forecasting with Measurement Errors in Dynamic Models," Working Papers 521, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  23. Daragh Clancy, 2013. "Output Gap Estimation Uncertainty: Extracting the TFP Cycle Using an Aggregated PMI Series," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18.
  24. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvão, Ana, 2010. "First announcements and real economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 803-817, August.
  25. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  26. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos, 2011. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys," Discussion Papers 11-01, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  27. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
  28. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  30. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00511979 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Bouabdallah, Othman & Bessec, Marie, 2015. "Forecasting GDP over the business cycle in a multi-frequency and data-rich environment," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10080, Paris Dauphine University.
  32. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  33. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Makroökonomische Prognosen mit gemischten Frequenzen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 22-33, November.
  34. Irac, D. & Sédillot, F., 2002. "Short-Run Assessment of French Economic Activity Using OPTIM," Working papers 88, Banque de France.
  35. Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
  36. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle: A comparative study for Germany and Switzerland," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  37. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
  38. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  39. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  40. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  41. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Forecasting Data Vintages," Working Papers 2012-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  42. Menzie D. Chinn & Kavan J. Kucko, 2010. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," NBER Working Papers 16398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  44. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  45. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2011. "Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models," Working Papers 678, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  46. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
  47. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Maurizio Luisi, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," NBER Working Papers 19650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  49. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
  50. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers 0004, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  51. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
  52. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Mit Zeitungen Konjunkturprognosen erstellen: Eine Vergleichsstudie für die Schweiz und Deutschland," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(3), pages 104-117, September.
  53. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, 08.
  54. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  55. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 0846, European Central Bank.
  56. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55, December.
  57. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  58. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Eurozone Sovereign Yield Spreads and Diverging Economic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 9538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
  60. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
  61. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
  62. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  63. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  64. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  65. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  66. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  67. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  68. Christian Schumacher, 2011. "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(1), pages 28-49, February.
  69. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  70. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  71. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2006. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(509), pages F119-F135, 02.
  72. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2002. "Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 15-28.
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