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Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations

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  • Paul Hubert

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Fabien Labondance

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

We explore empirically the theoretical prediction that waves of optimism or pessimism may have aggregate effects, in the context of monetary policy. We investigate whether the sentiment conveyed by ECB and FOMC policymakers in their statements affect the term structure of private short-term interest rate expectations. First, we quantify central bank tone using a computational linguistics approach. Second, we identify sentiment as exogenous shocks to these quantitative measures using an augmented narrative approach following the information friction literature. Third, we estimate the impact of sentiment on private agents’ expectations about future short-term interest rates using a high-frequency methodology and an ARCH model. We find that sentiment shocks increase private interest rate expectations around maturities of one and two years. We also find that this effect is non-linear and depends on the state of the economy and on the characteristics (precision, sign and size) of the sentiment signal.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po publications 2016-29, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7mota32nad8aopst8f7d5aebpo
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    2. Odendahl Florens & Sestieri Giulia, 2020. "Fed Communication on Financial Stability Concerns and Monetary Policy Decisions: Revelations from SpeechesAuthor-Name: Istrefi Klodiana," Working papers 779, Banque de France.
    3. Siklos, Pierre, 2017. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors," LCERPA Working Papers 0098, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Apr 2017.
    4. Ostapenko, Nataliia, 2020. "Central Bank Communication: Information and Policy shocks," MPRA Paper 101278, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2020.
    5. Bennani, Hamza, 2019. "Does People's Bank of China communication matter? Evidence from stock market reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Babatunde Samson Omotosho, 2020. "Central Bank Communication In Ghana: Insights From A Text Mining Analysis," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 5(1), pages 01-13, January.
    7. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Tumala, Mohammed M., 2019. "A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    9. Apel, Mikael & Blix Grimaldi, Marianna & Hull, Isaiah, 2019. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Working Paper Series 381, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Ricardo Correa & Keshav Garud & Juan M. Londono & Nathan Mislang, 2017. "Sentiment in Central Banks' Financial Stability Reports," International Finance Discussion Papers 1203, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Asset Price Spillovers from Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Global Empirical Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 43-74, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Animal spirits; Optimism; Confidence; Central Bank communication; Interest rate expectations; ECB; FOMC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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