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Fish as food

Author

Listed:
  • Delgado, Christopher L.
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Wada, Nikolas
  • Meijer, Siet
  • Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin

Abstract

"This paper reports results of incorporating fish into IMPACT, a global model of food supply and demand that estimates market-clearing prices to 2020 for 32 commodities in 36 regions. It summarizes results for production, consumption, net exports and real price changes for 10 economic categories of fisheries items, disaggregated into 15 geographic regions of the world. Under the medium-variant scenario for the uncertain capture fisheries sectors, global production of food fish is projected to rise by 1.5% annually through 2020, with two-thirds of this from aquaculture, whose share in total food fish production rises to 41%. Global per capita fish consumption is projected to be 17.1 kg in 2020, with sensitivity analysis indicating a margin of 2 kg/capita either way based on extreme scenarios for capture and aquaculture. Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish production in 2020. China's share of world production will continue to expand, while that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%. Fishmeal and oil prices will rise 18%; use of these commodities will increasingly be concentrated in carnivorous aquaculture. Growing domestic demand will dampen fish exports from developing countries. Sensitivity analysis incorporating a very pessimistic view of capture fisheries leads to escalating food fish prices (+69% for high-value finfish) and soaring fishmeal prices (+134%), whereas an optimistic view of increased investment in aquaculture lowers real prices of low value food fish (-12%), and raises fishmeal prices (+42%)." Authors' Abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wada, Nikolas & Meijer, Siet & Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin, 2002. "Fish as food," MTID discussion papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:mtiddp:52
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    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/mssdp52.pdf
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wada, Nikolas & Meijer, Siet & Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin, 2002. "Fish as food," MSSD discussion papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Awudu Abdulai & Christopher Delgado, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation of Short- and Long-run Agricultural Wage Formation in Ghana," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 169-185.
    2. Christopher Delgado & Pierre Crosson & Claude Courbois, 1997. "The Impact of Livestock and Fisheries on Food Availability and Demand in 2020," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1471-1475.
    3. Goletti, Francesco & Minot, Nicholas, 1997. "Rice markets, agricultural growth, and policy options in Viet Nam," MTID discussion papers 14, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Minot, Nicholas, 2000. "Generating Disaggregated Poverty Maps: An Application to Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 319-331, February.
    5. Goletti, Francesco & Minot, Nicholas & Berry, Philippe, 1997. "Marketing constraints on rice exports from Viet Nam," MTID discussion papers 15, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Kherallah, Mylène & Minot, Nicholas & Gruhn, Peter, 1999. "Adjustment of wheat production to market reform in Egypt," MTID discussion papers 32, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Staal, Steven & Delgado, Christopher L. & Nicholson, Charles F., 1996. "Smallholder dairying under transactions costs in East Africa," MTID discussion papers 9, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Rashid, Shahidur & Sharma, Manohar & Zeller, Manfred, 2002. "Micro-lending for small farmers in Bangladesh," MTID discussion papers 45, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Fafchamps, Marcel & Minten, Bart, 2001. "Property Rights in a Flea Market Economy," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 229-67, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dorosh, Paul A. & Stifel, David & Minten, Bart, 2003. "Transaction costs and agricultural productivity," MSSD discussion papers 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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