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Climate change, food security, and future scenarios for potato production in India to 2030

Author

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  • Gregory J. Scott

    (CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School
    Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Athanasios Petsakos

    (International Potato Center)

  • Henry Juarez

    (International Potato Center)

Abstract

Much of the literature on future food supply in Asia focuses almost exclusively on the cereal crops overlooking the growing importance of other food commodities and their potential to help sustain Asian food systems and food security in the decades ahead. This study utilizes a multi-period, agricultural partial equilibrium economic model, linked with a set of crop, climate and water models to estimate potato supply in India for the period 2010 to 2030 according to three scenarios: high, moderate, and slow growth. According to the high growth scenario, potato supply could increase over 37 million metric tonnes while the more pessimistic scenario estimates increases in production of nearly 24 million metric tonnes. The findings point to opportunities for agribusiness initiatives in input markets and technical services for potato cultivation. They also call attention to the benefits to be derived from policy initiatives in support of future activities on and off the farm intended to optimize the potato sector’s contribution to food production, income, employment, and food security in India in the years ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory J. Scott & Athanasios Petsakos & Henry Juarez, 2019. "Climate change, food security, and future scenarios for potato production in India to 2030," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 43-56, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:11:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s12571-019-00897-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-019-00897-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sana Khushi & Sajid Rashid Ahmad & Ather Ashraf & Muhammad Imran, 0. "Spatially analyzing food consumption inequalities using GIS with disaggregated data from Punjab, Pakistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 0, pages 1-16.
    2. Sana Khushi & Sajid Rashid Ahmad & Ather Ashraf & Muhammad Imran, 2020. "Spatially analyzing food consumption inequalities using GIS with disaggregated data from Punjab, Pakistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(6), pages 1283-1298, December.
    3. Yujie Liu & Qiaomin Chen & Qinghua Tan, 2019. "Responses of wheat yields and water use efficiency to climate change and nitrogen fertilization in the North China plain," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1231-1242, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Climate change; Technology; IMPACT; Food policy; Food security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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