IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v11y2019i6d10.1007_s12571-019-00976-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Responses of wheat yields and water use efficiency to climate change and nitrogen fertilization in the North China plain

Author

Listed:
  • Yujie Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Qiaomin Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Qinghua Tan

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Ensuring food security for the 1.4 billion people of China is a critical challenge, and therefore the accurate assessment of crop yield responses to climate change is a key scientific issue. However, the extent to which the variation in crop growth can be accounted for by the variability in climate variables or by management adaptations remains unclear. Based on daily weather data and management information at six stations, we constructed three sets of simulation experiments using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model. This allowed quantifying the responses of wheat yield and water use efficiency (yield/evapotranspiration, WUE) to climate change and nitrogen (N) fertilization for the period 1981 to 2008 in the North China Plain. Our results indicated that the simulated median values of the wheat yield/WUE decreased (2.62% to 14.26%)/(1.58% to 9.33%) with increasing temperature (T), increased (0.17% to 6.81%)/(0.70% to 4.55%) with elevated CO2 concentration, and changed little with decreasing precipitation in 15 simulation experiments of individual climate variables. Under the combined changes in temperature, N fertilization (T/N), and CO2 concentration, the effects of changes in T/N fertilization on wheat yields and WUE were stronger than the effects of change in CO2 concentration. Interactions between T and CO2 concentration, N fertilization and CO2 concentration appear to play very significant roles in wheat yield. Our study suggests that proper N fertilizer application, changing crop establishment dates, and cultivating new cultivars could be efficient measures for food production prediction and climate change adaptation in the North China Plain. A main result of this work is therefore that proper N application, shifts in crop establishment dates, and the cultivation of new high-temperature tolerant wheat cultivars could contribute safeguarding food security in China, and globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Yujie Liu & Qiaomin Chen & Qinghua Tan, 2019. "Responses of wheat yields and water use efficiency to climate change and nitrogen fertilization in the North China plain," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1231-1242, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:11:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s12571-019-00976-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-019-00976-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-019-00976-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12571-019-00976-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parisa Paymard & Mohammad Bannayan & Reza Sadrabadi Haghighi, 2018. "Analysis of the climate change effect on wheat production systems and investigate the potential of management strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1237-1255, April.
    2. Jing Wang & Enli Wang & Xiaoguang Yang & Fusuo Zhang & Hong Yin, 2012. "Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 825-840, August.
    3. Elizabeth L. Malone & Nathan L. Engle, 2011. "Evaluating regional vulnerability to climate change: purposes and methods," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3), pages 462-474, May.
    4. Ali, Ghaffar & Ashraf, Aqdas & Bashir, Muhammad Khalid & Cui, Shenghui, 2017. "Exploring environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in relation to green revolution: A case study of Pakistan," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 166-171.
    5. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    6. Chao Chen & Walter Baethgen & Andrew Robertson, 2013. "Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 767-788, February.
    7. Chen, Qiaomin & Liu, Yujie & Ge, Quansheng & Pan, Tao, 2018. "Impacts of historic climate variability and land use change on winter wheat climatic productivity in the North China Plain during 1980–2010," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Gregory J. Scott & Athanasios Petsakos & Henry Juarez, 2019. "Climate change, food security, and future scenarios for potato production in India to 2030," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 43-56, February.
    9. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yunqi & Peng, Yu & Lin, Jiaqi & Wang, Lixin & Jia, Zhikuan & Zhang, Rui, 2023. "Optimal nitrogen management to achieve high wheat grain yield, grain protein content, and water productivity: A meta-analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    2. Liu, Yujie & Zhang, Jie & Qin, Ya, 2020. "How global warming alters future maize yield and water use efficiency in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Wang, Xingwang & Lei, Huimin & Li, Jiadi & Huo, Zailin & Zhang, Yongqiang & Qu, Yanping, 2023. "Estimating evapotranspiration and yield of wheat and maize croplands through a remote sensing-based model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beaumont, Linda J. & Graham, Erin & Duursma, Daisy Englert & Wilson, Peter D. & Cabrelli, Abigail & Baumgartner, John B. & Hallgren, Willow & Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel & Nipperess, David A. & Warren, , 2016. "Which species distribution models are more (or less) likely to project broad-scale, climate-induced shifts in species ranges?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 135-146.
    2. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Vasilii Erokhin & Alexander Esaulko & Elena Pismennaya & Evgeny Golosnoy & Olga Vlasova & Anna Ivolga, 2021. "Combined Impact of Climate Change and Land Qualities on Winter Wheat Yield in Central Fore-Caucasus: The Long-Term Retrospective Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-28, December.
    4. Izidine Pinto & Christopher Lennard & Mark Tadross & Bruce Hewitson & Alessandro Dosio & Grigory Nikulin & Hans-Juergen Panitz & Mxolisi E. Shongwe, 2016. "Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 655-668, April.
    5. Marcos A. Lana & Ana Carolina F. Vasconcelos & Christoph Gornott & Angela Schaffert & Michelle Bonatti & Johanna Volk & Frieder Graef & Kurt Christian Kersebaum & Stefan Sieber, 2018. "Is dry soil planting an adaptation strategy for maize cultivation in semi-arid Tanzania?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(4), pages 897-910, August.
    6. Chen, Qiaomin & Liu, Yujie & Ge, Quansheng & Pan, Tao, 2018. "Impacts of historic climate variability and land use change on winter wheat climatic productivity in the North China Plain during 1980–2010," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & De Li Liu, 2018. "Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Keyvan Malek & Patrick Reed & Jennifer Adam & Tina Karimi & Michael Brady, 2020. "Water rights shape crop yield and revenue volatility tradeoffs for adaptation in snow dependent systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Sun, Shuang & Yang, Xiaoguang & Lin, Xiaomao & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Li, Kenan, 2018. "Climate-smart management can further improve winter wheat yield in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 10-18.
    10. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Findlay, Christopher & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia, 2020. "Management adaptation to flood in Guangdong Province in China: Do property rights Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.
    12. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    14. Seydou Zakari & Germaine Ibro & Bokar Moussa & Tahirou Abdoulaye, 2022. "Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Impacts on Household Income and Food Security: Evidence from Sahelian Region of Niger," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    16. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Vermaak, Herman Jacobus & Kusakana, Kanzumba & Koko, Sandile Philip, 2014. "Status of micro-hydrokinetic river technology in rural applications: A review of literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 625-633.
    18. Kwasi, Frimpong & Oosthuizen, Jacque & Etten, Eddie Van, 2014. "The Extent of Heat on Health and Sustainable Farming in Ghana –Bawku East," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 3(3).
    19. Giovanni Matteo & Pierfrancesco Nardi & Stefano Grego & Caterina Guidi, 2018. "Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 508-516, December.
    20. Simon Tilleard & James Ford, 2016. "Adaptation readiness and adaptive capacity of transboundary river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 575-591, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:11:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s12571-019-00976-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.