IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i4d10.1007_s11069-024-06951-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity supply research for ensuring food security in North China during droughts and floods: copula modeling for the water-energy-food nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Junfei Chen

    (Hohai University
    Hohai University
    Hohai University)

  • Wentong Yang

    (Hohai University)

  • Wenjie Gong

    (Shandong University of Technology)

  • Xinyu Liu

    (Hohai University)

Abstract

Droughts and floods pose significant threats to rain-fed agriculture in North China. Ensuring adequate electricity supply during disasters can safeguard food production security and promote sustainable agricultural development. This study proposed a conceptual framework for assessing the water-energy-food nexus from a disaster perspective. Taking 58 cities in North China as a case study, we initially analyzed the correlation among water balance conditions, rural electricity consumption, and food output using a linear approach, which serves to assess the suitability of Copula modeling. Subsequently, the three variables were modeled using five multidimensional Copula functions to deeply explore the intricate correlation structure among them. Finally, using the Copula model and conditional probability analysis, we determined the minimum rural electricity consumption necessary to secure food production security during droughts and floods. The results show that to ensure food production security during drought years, an annual minimum rural electricity consumption of 2100 kWh/person was required in Shandong, 1800 kWh/person in Henan, 2100 kWh/person in Hebei, 900 kWh/person in Shanxi, 1950 kWh/person in Beijing, and 1950 kWh/person in Tianjin. Similarly, to ensure food production security during flood years, an annual minimum of 2700 kWh/person of rural electricity consumption was guaranteed in Shandong, 2100 kWh/person in Henan, 2850 kWh/person in Hebei, 2100 kWh/person in Shanxi, 2250 kWh/person in Beijing, and 3000 kWh/person in Tianjin. The findings of the study can provide decision support for food security work in North China.

Suggested Citation

  • Junfei Chen & Wentong Yang & Wenjie Gong & Xinyu Liu, 2025. "Electricity supply research for ensuring food security in North China during droughts and floods: copula modeling for the water-energy-food nexus," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4265-4291, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06951-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06951-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06951-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06951-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guangpeng Wang & Yong Liu & Ziying Hu & Yanli Lyu & Guoming Zhang & Jifu Liu & Yun Liu & Yu Gu & Xichen Huang & Hao Zheng & Qingyan Zhang & Zongze Tong & Chang Hong & Lianyou Liu, 2020. "Flood Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Method in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Ting Wei & Xuehua Zhao, 2024. "Assessment of spatial–temporal variation of precipitation and meteorological drought in Shanxi province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(6), pages 5579-5599, April.
    3. Zhang, Jie & Campana, Pietro Elia & Yao, Tian & Zhang, Yang & Lundblad, Anders & Melton, Forrest & Yan, Jinyue, 2018. "The water-food-energy nexus optimization approach to combat agricultural drought: a case study in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 449-464.
    4. Tugrul Varol & Ayhan Atesoglu & Halil Baris Ozel & Mehmet Cetin, 2023. "Copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) and length, severity, and frequency of hydrological drought in the Upper Sakarya Basin, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3669-3683, April.
    5. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong, 2019. "Measuring tail risk with GAS time varying copula, fat tailed GARCH model and hedging for crude oil futures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 95-109.
    6. Geng, Guangpo & Yang, Rui & Chen, Qiuji & Deng, Tiantian & Yue, Meng & Zhang, Bao & Gu, Qian, 2023. "Tracking the influence of drought events on winter wheat using long-term gross primary production and yield in the Wei River Basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Gjorgievski, Vladimir Z. & Markovska, Natasa & Abazi, Alajdin & Duić, Neven, 2021. "The potential of power-to-heat demand response to improve the flexibility of the energy system: An empirical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Ying Wang & Qiang Zhang, 2024. "Distribution characteristics of drought and flood hazards in northern China against the background of climate warming," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(7), pages 5987-6009, May.
    9. Wenjiao Shi & Fulu Tao, 2014. "Spatio-temporal distributions of climate disasters and the response of wheat yields in China from 1983 to 2008," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 569-583, November.
    10. Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2023. "Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3817-3837, April.
    11. Zhai, Mengyu & Huang, Guohe & Liu, Lirong & Zheng, Boyue & Guan, Yuru, 2020. "Inter-regional carbon flows embodied in electricity transmission: network simulation for energy-carbon nexus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    13. Wu, Dong & Fang, Shibo & Li, Xuan & He, Di & Zhu, Yongchao & Yang, Zaiqiang & Xu, Jiaxin & Wu, Yingjie, 2019. "Spatial-temporal variation in irrigation water requirement for the winter wheat-summer maize rotation system since the 1980s on the North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 78-86.
    14. Ken E. Giller & Thomas Delaune & João Vasco Silva & Katrien Descheemaeker & Gerrie Ven & Antonius G.T. Schut & Mark Wijk & James Hammond & Zvi Hochman & Godfrey Taulya & Regis Chikowo & Sudha Narayana, 2021. "The future of farming: Who will produce our food?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(5), pages 1073-1099, October.
    15. Liu, Xiang-dong & Pan, Fei & Cai, Wen-li & Peng, Rui, 2020. "Correlation and risk measurement modeling: A Markov-switching mixed Clayton copula approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    16. Yujie Liu & Qiaomin Chen & Qinghua Tan, 2019. "Responses of wheat yields and water use efficiency to climate change and nitrogen fertilization in the North China plain," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1231-1242, December.
    17. Ralf Nordbeck & Walter Seher & Heidelinde Grüneis & Mathew Herrnegger & Lena Junger, 2023. "Conflicting and complementary policy goals as sectoral integration challenge: an analysis of sectoral interplay in flood risk management," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 56(3), pages 595-612, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hengli Wang & Hong Liu & Rui Ma, 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Grain Production Considering Climate Change and Air Pollution in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, July.
    2. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    3. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    4. Bu, Lingduo & Chen, Xinping & Li, Shiqing & Liu, Jianliang & Zhu, Lin & Luo, Shasha & Lee Hill, Robert & Zhao, Ying, 2015. "The effect of adapting cultivars on the water use efficiency of dryland maize (Zea mays L.) in northwestern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Wenfeng Chi & Yuanyuan Zhao & Wenhui Kuang & Tao Pan & Tu Ba & Jinshen Zhao & Liang Jin & Sisi Wang, 2021. "Impact of Cropland Evolution on Soil Wind Erosion in Inner Mongolia of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Charlotte Fabri & Sam Vermeulen & Steven Van Passel & Sergei Schaub, 2024. "Crop diversification and the effect of weather shocks on Italian farmers' income and income risk," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(3), pages 955-980, September.
    7. Xu, Ying & Findlay, Christopher, 2019. "Farmers’ constraints, governmental support and climate change adaptation: Evidence from Guangdong Province, China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    8. Brian C. Thiede & Abbie Robinson & Clark Gray, 2024. "Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(2), pages 513-540, June.
    9. Adriane Terezinha Schneider & Rosangela Rodrigues Dias & Mariany Costa Deprá & Darissa Alves Dutra & Richard Luan Silva Machado & Cristiano Ragagnin de Menezes & Leila Queiroz Zepka & Eduardo Jacob-Lo, 2024. "The Intersectionality Between Amazon and Commodities Production: A Close Look at Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Minh Van Nguyen & Tu Thanh Nguyen & Chien Thanh Phan & Khanh Duy Ha, 2024. "Sustainable redevelopment of urban areas: Assessment of key barriers for the reconstruction of old residential buildings," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 2282-2297, June.
    12. Yuhong Shuai & Liming Yao, 2021. "Adjustable Robust Optimization for Multi-Period Water Allocation in Droughts Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4043-4065, September.
    13. Zhang, Fengtai & Xiao, Yuedong & Gao, Lei & Ma, Dalai & Su, Ruiqi & Yang, Qing, 2022. "How agricultural water use efficiency varies in China—A spatial-temporal analysis considering unexpected outputs," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    14. Wang, Qiushi & Liang, Shen & Zhu, Ziye & Wu, Gang & Su, Yuehong & Zheng, Hongfei, 2019. "Performance of seawater-filling type planting system based on solar distillation process: Numerical and experimental investigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1225-1234.
    15. Chen, Qi & Qu, Zhaoming & Ma, Guohua & Wang, Wenjing & Dai, Jiaying & Zhang, Min & Wei, Zhanbo & Liu, Zhiguang, 2022. "Humic acid modulates growth, photosynthesis, hormone and osmolytes system of maize under drought conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    16. Kang, Shaozhong & Hao, Xinmei & Du, Taisheng & Tong, Ling & Su, Xiaoling & Lu, Hongna & Li, Xiaolin & Huo, Zailin & Li, Sien & Ding, Risheng, 2017. "Improving agricultural water productivity to ensure food security in China under changing environment: From research to practice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 5-17.
    17. Wang, P.P. & Huang, G.H. & Li, Y.P. & Liu, Y.Y. & Li, Y.F., 2024. "An ecological input-output CGE model for unveiling CO2 emission metabolism under China's dual carbon goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    18. Zhihai Yang & Amin W. Mugera & Fan Zhang, 2016. "Investigating Yield Variability and Inefficiency in Rice Production: A Case Study in Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-11, August.
    19. Lund, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Yuan, M. & Sorknæs, P. & Thellufsen, J.Z., 2025. "Energy balancing and storage in climate-neutral smart energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    20. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06951-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.