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Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)

Author

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  • Ihsan F. Hasan

    (Universiti Sains Malaysia
    University of Mosul)

  • Rozi Abdullah

    (Universiti Sains Malaysia)

Abstract

Drought analysis is important for early warning of drought events in arid and semiarid regions. Reliance on a single variable or index is not adequate to conduct a comprehensive assessment of drought risk. Therefore, the use of multivariate drought indices can provide reliable information to assess drought characteristics. This study proposes a new multivariate drought index based on the combination of effective precipitation and runoff variables. The copula function was used to derive the joint distribution of effective precipitation and runoff. The new index, named effective precipitation runoff index (EPRI), is developed by using observed hydro-meteorological time series data collected from the Northeastern region of Iraq. This procedure can be considered as an approach that enables a comprehensive assessment of different types of drought, which can be seamlessly compared with the output of standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized effective precipitation index (SEPI). Based on the results of goodness-of-fit test, Clayton copula was selected as the best suitable copula for constructing the EPRI. It was found that the EPRI is approximately high correlated with SEPI and SRI indices, which indicates the reliability of the modeled EPRI index for monitoring drought.

Suggested Citation

  • Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2023. "Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3817-3837, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05837-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05837-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Javad Bazrafshan & Mehdi Nadi & Khalil Ghorbani, 2015. "Comparison of Empirical Copula-Based Joint Deficit Index (JDI) and Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) for Drought Monitoring in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2027-2044, April.
    3. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junfei Chen & Wentong Yang & Wenjie Gong & Xinyu Liu, 2025. "Electricity supply research for ensuring food security in North China during droughts and floods: copula modeling for the water-energy-food nexus," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4265-4291, March.

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