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The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions

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  • Zahra Fahimirad

    (University of Qom)

  • Nazanin Shahkarami

    (Arak University)

Abstract

Climate change has made many alterations to the climate of earth, including hydro-climatic extreme events. To investigate the impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological droughts in the Kamal-Saleh dam basin in Markazi province, Iran, proportional to future climate conditions, a new and comprehensive index was developed with the aim of accurately estimating drought in a more realistic condition. This aggregate drought index (ADI) represented the main meteorological and hydrological characteristics of drought. Temperature and precipitation projections for future climates were simulated by five CMIP5 models and downscaled over the study area during 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099) relative to the baseline period (1976–2005). By fitting five univariate distribution functions on drought severity and duration, proper marginal distributions were selected. The joint distribution of drought severity and duration was chosen from five types of copula functions. The results revealed that in future, severe droughts are expected to frequently occur in a shorter period.

Suggested Citation

  • Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02918-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02918-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ibrahim Halil Deger & Musa Esıt & Mehmet Ishak Yuce, 2023. "Univariate and Bivariate Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis by Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(12), pages 4881-4907, September.
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    4. Kimia Naderi & Mahnoosh Moghaddasi & Ashkan shokri, 2022. "Drought Occurrence Probability Analysis Using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copula Function Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2865-2888, June.

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