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Univariate and Bivariate Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis by Copula Functions

Author

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  • Ibrahim Halil Deger

    (Hasan Kalyoncu University)

  • Musa Esıt

    (Adiyaman University)

  • Mehmet Ishak Yuce

    (Gaziantep University)

Abstract

Drought duration and severity are two significant and strongly related drought characteristics. In this study, the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) is utilized to acquire drought characteristics using mean monthly streamflow records of 36 stations in the Euphrates Basin, considering 3- and 6-month time scales. Mann–Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient is utilized for analyzing the dependence between severity and duration, as well as for deciding the suitability of series for joint return periods. Six marginal distributions are used to model the marginal distributions of duration and severity. The best fit marginal distributions of these drought characteristics and the best copulas among ten copula types were utilized for constructing univariate return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, and 500-years and bivariate return periods considering the TDS (and) and T′DS (or) cases. The best copulas are analyzed by tail dependence and by goodness of fit tests. Results indicate that the correlation coefficients are between 0.691–0.893 in SDI-3 while they are between 0.741–0.904 in SDI-6. Marginal distribution analyses show that the Lognormal and Weibull distributions are the best-fit distributions for drought duration and severity in SDI-3 while the Lognormal and Gamma were noted to be the most suitable distributions for duration and severity, respectively in SDI-6. Analyses reveal that the Gumbel copula has a clear superiority to model joint return periods in both time scales. Different parts of the basin are at risk of drought for various return periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim Halil Deger & Musa Esıt & Mehmet Ishak Yuce, 2023. "Univariate and Bivariate Hydrological Drought Frequency Analysis by Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(12), pages 4881-4907, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03586-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03586-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anas Mahmood Al-Juboori, 2023. "Prediction of Hydrological Drought in Semi-arid Regions Using a Novel Hybrid Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3657-3669, July.
    2. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    3. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    4. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    5. Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2022. "Agricultural Drought Characteristics Analysis Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5915-5930, December.
    6. Homa Razmkhah & Alireza Fararouie & Amin Rostami Ravari, 2022. "Multivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Using Bivariate Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 729-743, January.
    7. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
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