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A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi

    (University of Birjand)

  • Yousef Ramezani

    (University of Birjand)

  • Carlo De Michele

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Rasoul Mirabbasi

    (Shahrekord University)

Abstract

In this study, a new method was proposed to model the occurrence of related variables based on the conditional density of copula functions. The proposed method was adopted to investigate the dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Zarinehroud basin, southeast of Lake Urmia, during the period 1994–2015. For this purpose, the modified precipitation anomaly percentage and streamflow drought indices were extracted. Finally, the joint frequency analysis of duration-duration and severity-severity characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts was analyzed. Analysis of 7 different copulas used to create the joint distribution in the Zarinehroud basin indicated that the Frank copula had the best performance in describing the relationship between the meteorological and hydrological drought severities and durations. By examining the results of the bivariate analysis of duration-duration of meteorological and hydrological droughts at different stations, the expected meteorological and hydrological drought durations were estimated in the years ahead. For example, at Chalkhmaz station, 4- to 7-month duration for the hydrological drought and 9- to 12-month duration for the meteorological drought is expected in the years ahead. The joint frequency analysis of drought characteristics allows to determine the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics at a single station at the same time using joint probabilities. Also, the results indicated that by knowing the conditional density, the hydrological drought characteristics can be easily estimated for the given meteorological drought characteristics. This could provide users and researchers useful information about the probabilistic behavior of drought characteristics for optimal operation of surface water.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani & Carlo De Michele & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2020. "A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4217-4231, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02666-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02666-6
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    1. Dong-Dong Zhang & Deng-Hua Yan & Fan Lu & Yi-Cheng Wang & Jing Feng, 2015. "Copula-based risk assessment of drought in Yunnan province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2199-2220, February.
    2. Farshad Ahmadi & Feridon Radmaneh & Gholam Ali Parham & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2017. "Comparison of the performance of power law and probability distributions in the frequency analysis of flood in Dez Basin, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1313-1331, July.
    3. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
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    3. Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi & Rasoul Mirabbasi & Yousef Ramezani & Farshad Ahmadi, 2022. "Probabilistic Assessment of Monthly River Discharge using Copula and OSVR Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(6), pages 2027-2043, April.
    4. Changyan Yin & Jiayi Wang & Xin Yu & Yong Li & Denghua Yan & Shengqi Jian, 2022. "Definition of Extreme Rainfall Events and Design of Rainfall Based on the Copula Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3759-3778, August.
    5. Mohamad Khoirun Najib & Sri Nurdiati & Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, 2022. "Multivariate fire risk models using copula regression in Kalimantan, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1263-1283, September.
    6. Kimia Naderi & Mahnoosh Moghaddasi & Ashkan shokri, 2022. "Drought Occurrence Probability Analysis Using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copula Function Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2865-2888, June.
    7. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    8. Mohammad Nazeri-Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani & Carlo Michele & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2022. "Bivariate Simulation of Potential Evapotranspiration Using Copula-GARCH Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 1007-1024, February.
    9. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2022. "Comparison of Frequency Calculation Methods for Precipitation Series Containing Zero Values," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 527-550, January.

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