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Comparison of the performance of power law and probability distributions in the frequency analysis of flood in Dez Basin, Iran

Author

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  • Farshad Ahmadi

    (Shahid Chamran University)

  • Feridon Radmaneh

    (Shahid Chamran University)

  • Gholam Ali Parham

    (Shahid Chamran University)

  • Rasoul Mirabbasi

    (Shahrekord University)

Abstract

Determination of the return period of design flood depends on the nature of the project and the consequences of the flood and is based on economic criteria, human casualties, and hydrological factors. Underestimation of flood might result in casualties and economic damages, while the overestimation leads to capital waste. Therefore, in this research, the flood frequency analysis of Dez Basin, Iran was conducted within the period of 1956–2012 using power law approach together with ordinary distributions, including normal, log normal, Pearson type III, exponential, gamma, generalized extreme value, Nakagami, Rayleigh, logistic, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions. The power law comes from the fractal nature of earth science phenomena such as precipitation and runoff. Accordingly, in this research the partial duration flood series of five hydrometric stations in Dez Basin were extracted using power law with the intervals of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days and then compared with the annual maxima. The results indicated that the annual maxima were not suitable for frequency analysis of the flood in Dez Basin, and the 30-day partial duration series obtained from the power law has a better correspondence with the flow and properties of the Dez Basin. The independence and stationarity of the 30-day partial duration series were examined by Wald–Wolfowitz test, confirming the independence of the considered series. Next, the power distribution and the typical statistical distributions were fitted onto the data of the flood in Dez Basin, with the performance of each distribution being investigated using normalized root-mean-square error and Nash–Sutcliffe criteria. The results revealed that in the SDZ and TPB stations, power distribution had a better performance than other considered distributions. Moreover, in the SDS, TPS, and TZ stations the power distribution stood in the second rank in terms of the best distribution. As the performance of power distribution in the estimation of the flood in Dez Basin has been very satisfactory and calculation of its parameters and its application is easier than ordinary probability distributions, thus it can be suggested as the superior distribution for flood frequency analysis in Dez Basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Farshad Ahmadi & Feridon Radmaneh & Gholam Ali Parham & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2017. "Comparison of the performance of power law and probability distributions in the frequency analysis of flood in Dez Basin, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1313-1331, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:87:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2819-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2819-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rakesh Kumar & Narendra Goel & Chandranath Chatterjee & Purna Nayak, 2015. "Regional Flood Frequency Analysis using Soft Computing Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1965-1978, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani & Carlo De Michele & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2020. "A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4217-4231, October.

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