IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i21p6032-d281865.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China

Author

Listed:
  • Rina Wu

    (School of Geography, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China)

  • Jiquan Zhang

    (School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Yuhai Bao

    (College of Geography, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China)

  • Enliang Guo

    (College of Geography, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China)

Abstract

Droughts are among the more costly natural hazards, and drought risk analysis has become urgent for the proper planning and management of water resources in grassland ecosystems. We chose Songnen grassland as a case study, used a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to model drought characteristics, employed run theory to define the drought event, and chose copula functions to construct the joint distribution for drought variables. We applied two kinds of return periods to conduct a drought risk assessment. After evaluating and comparing several distribution functions, drought severity (DS) was best described by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, whereas drought duration (DD) was best fitted by gamma distribution. The root mean square error (RMSE) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) goodness-of-fit measures to evaluate their performance, the best-performing copula is Frank copula to model the joint dependence structure for each drought variables. The results of the secondary return periods indicate that a higher risk of droughts occurs in Keshan county, Longjiang county, Qiqiha’er city, Taonan city, and Baicheng city. Furthermore, a relatively lower risk of drought was found in Bei’an city, Mingquan county, Qinggang county, and qian’an county, and also in the Changling county and Shuangliao city. According to the calculation of the secondary return periods, which considered all possible scenarios in our study, we found that the secondary return period may be the best indicator for evaluating grassland ecosystem drought risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:21:p:6032-:d:281865
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/21/6032/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/21/6032/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bahram Saghafian & Hossein Mehdikhani, 2014. "Drought characterization using a new copula-based trivariate approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(3), pages 1391-1407, July.
    2. Dong-Dong Zhang & Deng-Hua Yan & Fan Lu & Yi-Cheng Wang & Jing Feng, 2015. "Copula-based risk assessment of drought in Yunnan province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2199-2220, February.
    3. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    4. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    5. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258, October.
    6. Fadhilah Yusof & Foo Hui-Mean & Jamaludin Suhaila & Zulkifli Yusof, 2013. "Characterisation of Drought Properties with Bivariate Copula Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4183-4207, September.
    7. Poulomi Ganguli & M. Reddy, 2012. "Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3301-3327, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    2. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    3. Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2022. "Agricultural Drought Characteristics Analysis Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5915-5930, December.
    4. Hongjun Lei & Jie Yu & Hongwei Pan & Jie Li & Shah Jahan Leghari & Chongju Shang & Zheyuan Xiao & Cuicui Jin & Lili Shi, 2023. "A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    2. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
    3. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    5. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    6. Kumar Amrit & Rajendra P. Pandey & Surendra K. Mishra, 2018. "Characteristics of meteorological droughts in northwestern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 561-582, November.
    7. Fadhilah Yusof & Foo Hui-Mean & Jamaludin Suhaila & Zulkifli Yusof, 2013. "Characterisation of Drought Properties with Bivariate Copula Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4183-4207, September.
    8. Soumyashree Dixit & K. V. Jayakumar, 2022. "A Non-stationary and Probabilistic Approach for Drought Characterization Using Trivariate and Pairwise Copula Construction (PCC) Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1217-1236, March.
    9. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Jia-Wei Lin, 2016. "Clustering Quantile Regression-Based Drought Trends in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1069, February.
    10. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    11. Ge, Yan & Cai, Ximing & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2016. "Drought frequency change: An assessment in northern India plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 111-121.
    12. Ming Li & Guiwen Wang & Shengwei Zong & Xurong Chai, 2023. "Copula-Based Assessment and Regionalization of Drought Risk in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Qiang Zhang & Tianyao Qi & Vijay Singh & Yongqin Chen & Mingzhong Xiao, 2015. "Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in China: A Multivariate Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1767-1787, April.
    14. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    15. Lamneithem Hangshing & Parmendra P. Dabral, 2018. "Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1741-1758, March.
    16. Xiong-Fei Liu & Shi-Xin Wang & Yi Zhou & Fu-Tao Wang & Guang Yang & Wen-Liang Liu, 2016. "Spatial analysis of meteorological drought return periods in China using Copulas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 367-388, January.
    17. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    18. Ying Li & Wei Gu & Weijia Cui & Zhiyun Chang & Yingjun Xu, 2015. "Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1289-1303, June.
    19. Panagiotis Angelidis & Fotios Maris & Nikos Kotsovinos & Vlassios Hrissanthou, 2012. "Computation of Drought Index SPI with Alternative Distribution Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2453-2473, July.
    20. Nurulkamal Masseran, 2021. "Modeling the Characteristics of Unhealthy Air Pollution Events: A Copula Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-18, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:21:p:6032-:d:281865. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.