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Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria

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  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

    (Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
    Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, Dutse P.M.B 7156, Nigeria)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia)

  • Noraliani Alias

    (Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia)

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea)

Abstract

This study assesses the impacts of recent climate changes on drought-affected areas and the occurrence of droughts during different cropping seasons of Nigeria using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The crop growing seasons are considered because the droughts for those periods are more destructive to national agricultural production. The Mann–Kendall test and binary logistic regression were used to quantify the trends in drought-affected areas and the occurrence of crop droughts with different areal extents, respectively. Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961–2010 with spatial resolutions of 0.5° were used. Results showed an increase in the areal extent of droughts during some of the cropping seasons. The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons. The SPEI values calculated decreased mostly in the regions where rainfall was decreasing. That is, the recent changes in climate were responsible for the increase in the occurrences of droughts with smaller areal extents. These trends in climate indicate that the occurrence of larger areal extent droughts may happen more frequently in Nigeria in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias & Eun-Sung Chung, 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:871-:d:136972
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morteza Mohsenipour & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-sung Chung & Xiao-jun Wang, 2018. "Changing Pattern of Droughts during Cropping Seasons of Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1555-1568, March.
    2. Yang, Huicai & Wang, Huixiao & Fu, Guobin & Yan, Haiming & Zhao, Panpan & Ma, Meihong, 2017. "A modified soil water deficit index (MSWDI) for agricultural drought monitoring: Case study of Songnen Plain, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 125-138.
    3. Nam, Won-Ho & Hayes, Michael J. & Svoboda, Mark D. & Tadesse, Tsegaye & Wilhite, Donald A., 2015. "Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 106-117.
    4. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7376, April.
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