IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i3p871-d136972.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

    (Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
    Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, Dutse P.M.B 7156, Nigeria)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia)

  • Noraliani Alias

    (Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia)

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea)

Abstract

This study assesses the impacts of recent climate changes on drought-affected areas and the occurrence of droughts during different cropping seasons of Nigeria using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The crop growing seasons are considered because the droughts for those periods are more destructive to national agricultural production. The Mann–Kendall test and binary logistic regression were used to quantify the trends in drought-affected areas and the occurrence of crop droughts with different areal extents, respectively. Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961–2010 with spatial resolutions of 0.5° were used. Results showed an increase in the areal extent of droughts during some of the cropping seasons. The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons. The SPEI values calculated decreased mostly in the regions where rainfall was decreasing. That is, the recent changes in climate were responsible for the increase in the occurrences of droughts with smaller areal extents. These trends in climate indicate that the occurrence of larger areal extent droughts may happen more frequently in Nigeria in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias & Eun-Sung Chung, 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:871-:d:136972
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/871/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/871/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morteza Mohsenipour & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-sung Chung & Xiao-jun Wang, 2018. "Changing Pattern of Droughts during Cropping Seasons of Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1555-1568, March.
    2. Yang, Huicai & Wang, Huixiao & Fu, Guobin & Yan, Haiming & Zhao, Panpan & Ma, Meihong, 2017. "A modified soil water deficit index (MSWDI) for agricultural drought monitoring: Case study of Songnen Plain, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 125-138.
    3. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7376, December.
    4. Nam, Won-Ho & Hayes, Michael J. & Svoboda, Mark D. & Tadesse, Tsegaye & Wilhite, Donald A., 2015. "Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 106-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kamal Ahmed & Nadeem Nawaz & Najeebullah Khan & Balach Rasheed & Amdadullah Baloch, 2021. "Inhomogeneity detection in the precipitation series: case of arid province of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7176-7192, May.
    2. Mohammad Rajab Houmsi & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Kamal Ahmed & Ghaith Falah Ziarh & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung & Sungkon Kim, 2019. "Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Tarmizi bin Ismail & Young Hoon Song & Eun-Sung Chung, 2019. "Evaluation of Empirical Reference Evapotranspiration Models Using Compromise Programming: A Case Study of Peninsular Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Jiaqi Sun & Xiaojun Wang & Yixing Yin & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2021. "Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649–2018: a typical city in North China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2081-2099, September.
    5. Sumaiya Jarin Ahammed & Rajab Homsi & Najeebullah Khan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Morteza Mohsenipour & Kamal Ahmed & Nadeem Nawaz & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2020. "Assessment of changing pattern of crop water stress in Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4619-4637, June.
    6. Olufemi Sunday Durowoju & Temi Emmanuel Ologunorisa & Ademola Akinbobola, 2022. "Assessing agricultural and hydrological drought vulnerability in a savanna ecological zone of Sub-Saharan Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2431-2458, April.
    7. Bui Phan Quoc Nghia & Indrajit Pal & Malay Pramanik & Rajarshi Dasgupta, 2022. "The impact of climate change on drought and its adaptation strategies: findings from general circulation models and households in Tien Giang Province, Vietnam," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Mohammad Ahsan Uddin & ASM Maksud Kamal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "Volatility in Rainfall and Predictability of Droughts in Northwest Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Thaddaeus Obaji Ariom & Elodie Dimon & Eva Nambeye & Ndèye Seynabou Diouf & Oludotun Olusegun Adelusi & Sofiane Boudalia, 2022. "Climate-Smart Agriculture in African Countries: A Review of Strategies and Impacts on Smallholder Farmers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-32, September.
    10. Shanmugam Mohan Kumar & Vellingiri Geethalakshmi & Subbiah Ramanathan & Alagarsamy Senthil & Kandasamy Senthilraja & Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari & Ramasamy Gowtham & Balaji Kannan & Shanmugavel Priyanka, 2022. "Rainfall Spatial-Temporal Variability and Trends in the Thamirabharani River Basin, India: Implications for Agricultural Planning and Water Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    11. Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2023. "Multivariate index for monitoring drought (case study, Northeastern of Iraq)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3817-3837, April.
    12. Mahiuddin Alamgir & Morteza Mohsenipour & Rajab Homsi & Xiaojun Wang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2019. "Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Omolola M. Adisa & Muthoni Masinde & Joel O. Botai & Christina M. Botai, 2020. "Bibliometric Analysis of Methods and Tools for Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    14. Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Inhwan Park, 2021. "Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Ibrahim Sufiyan & M.K. Dahiru & Mohammed Alkali, 2022. "Geospatial Trend Analysis Of Rain-Fed And Irrigation Practices For Crops Yield Improvement In Kura And Minjibir, Kano Sate, Nigeria," Tropical Agrobiodiversity (TRAB), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 16-20, May.
    16. Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Sang Ug Kim & Minwoo Son & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, 2021. "Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Prof. Hyacinth Ichoku & Dr. Ihuoma Anthony & Dr. Tosin Olushola & Apinran Martins, 2023. "Analyzing the Evolving Relationships among Climate Change, Insecurity, and Food Price Inflation in Nigeria: NARDL Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 100-124, November.
    18. Huang, Wenhuan & Wang, Hailong, 2021. "Drought and intensified agriculture enhanced vegetation growth in the central Pearl River Basin of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    19. Mohammed Magdy Hamed & Najeebullah Khan & Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2022. "Ranking of Empirical Evapotranspiration Models in Different Climate Zones of Pakistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    20. Young Hoon Song & Eun-Sung Chung & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, 2020. "Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in GCMs Using Multiple Bias Correction Methods under Different RCPs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong, Minki & Lee, Sang-Hyun & Lee, Seung-Jae & Choi, Jin-Yong, 2021. "Application of high-resolution meteorological data from NCAM-WRF to characterize agricultural drought in small-scale farmlands based on soil moisture deficit," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    3. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2023. "Drought Exposure and Accuracy: Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Beliefs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 649-672, August.
    4. Dapeng Huang & Renhe Zhang & Zhiguo Huo & Fei Mao & Youhao E & Wei Zheng, 2012. "An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1575-1586, November.
    5. Viet-Ha Nhu & Ataollah Shirzadi & Himan Shahabi & Sushant K. Singh & Nadhir Al-Ansari & John J. Clague & Abolfazl Jaafari & Wei Chen & Shaghayegh Miraki & Jie Dou & Chinh Luu & Krzysztof Górski & Binh, 2020. "Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Comparison between Logistic Model Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes Tree, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine Algorithms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-30, April.
    6. Jun Wang & Zhenlou Chen & Shiyuan Xu & Beibei Hu, 2013. "Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1205-1220, March.
    7. Jolanta Kryspin-Watson & John Pollner & Sonja Nieuwejaar, 2008. "Climate Change Adaptation in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Reports 25985, The World Bank Group.
    8. Fatemeh Jalayer & Raffaele Risi & Francesco Paola & Maurizio Giugni & Gaetano Manfredi & Paolo Gasparini & Maria Topa & Nebyou Yonas & Kumelachew Yeshitela & Alemu Nebebe & Gina Cavan & Sarah Lindley , 2014. "Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 975-1001, September.
    9. Faraz S. Tehrani & Michele Calvello & Zhongqiang Liu & Limin Zhang & Suzanne Lacasse, 2022. "Machine learning and landslide studies: recent advances and applications," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1197-1245, November.
    10. Nisar Ali Shah & Muhammad Shafique & Muhammad Ishfaq & Kamil Faisal & Mark Van der Meijde, 2023. "Integrated Approach for Landslide Risk Assessment Using Geoinformation Tools and Field Data in Hindukush Mountain Ranges, Northern Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2022. "A Natural Disasters Index," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 263-284, April.
    12. Moonju Kim & Befekadu Chemere & Kyungil Sung, 2019. "Effect of Heavy Rainfall Events on the Dry Matter Yield Trend of Whole Crop Maize ( Zea mays L.)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-11, April.
    13. Mohammed Magdy Hamed & Najeebullah Khan & Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2022. "Ranking of Empirical Evapotranspiration Models in Different Climate Zones of Pakistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    14. Chia-Lee Yang & Benjamin J. C. Yuan & Chi-Yo Huang, 2015. "Key Determinant Derivations for Information Technology Disaster Recovery Site Selection by the Multi-Criterion Decision Making Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-40, May.
    15. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    16. Kaiwen Li & Ming Wang & Kai Liu, 2021. "The Study on Compound Drought and Heatwave Events in China Using Complex Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-15, November.
    17. Octavio Rojas & María Mardones & Carolina Martínez & Luis Flores & Katia Sáez & Alberto Araneda, 2018. "Flooding in Central Chile: Implications of Tides and Sea Level Increase in the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Zijun Qie & Lili Rong, 2017. "An integrated relative risk assessment model for urban disaster loss in view of disaster system theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 165-190, August.
    19. Abdoulaye Sy & Catherine Araujo-Bonjean & Marie-Eliette Dury & Nourddine Azzaoui & Arnaud Guillin, 2021. "An Extreme Value Mixture model to assess drought hazard in West Africa," Working Papers hal-03297023, HAL.
    20. World Bank, 2020. "Agriculture Risk Financing in Southern Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 34084, The World Bank Group.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:871-:d:136972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.