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Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)

Author

Listed:
  • Hans van Meijl

    (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Petr Havlik

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Hermann Lotze-Campen

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany)

  • Elke Stehfest

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Peter Witzke

    (EuroCARE, Bonn, Germany)

  • Ignacio Perez Dominguez

    (European Commission - JRC)

  • Benjamin Bodirsky

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany)

  • Michiel van Dijk

    (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Jonathan Doelman

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Thomas Fellmann

    (European Commission - JRC)

  • Florian Humpenoeder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany)

  • Jason Levin-Koopman

    (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Christoph Mueller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany)

  • Andrzej Tabeau

    (Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, The Netherlands)

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract

This report presents a global integrated assessment of the range of potential economic impacts of climate change and stringent mitigation measures in the agricultural sector. The analysis employs five global multi-region multi-commodity models and covers selected combinations of socioeconomic storylines and climate signals by mid-century. Model inputs are harmonised by using the same projections for population and GDP growth, as well as relative biophysical crop yield changes due to climate change. Model results can differ depending on model characteristics and the specific quantitative implementations of the socioeconomic storylines.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc106835
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    2. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    3. Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Thomas Fellmann, 2018. "PESETA III: Agro-economic analysis of climate change impacts in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC113743, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Rotem Zelingher, 2024. "Democratising Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting: The AGRICAF Approach," Papers 2410.20363, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    5. Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson, 2019. "G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 50-96, June.
    6. John T. Saunders & Marcel Adenäuer & Jonathan Brooks, 2019. "Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 131, OECD Publishing.
    7. PHILIPPIDIS George & BARTELINGS H. & HELMING John & M'BAREK Robert & RONZON Tevecia & SMEETS Edward & VAN MEIJL Hans & SHUTES Lindsay, 2018. "The MAGNET model framework for assessing policy coherence and SDGs: Application to the bioeconomy," JRC Research Reports JRC111508, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Vlada Vitunskienė & Akvilė Aleksandravičienė & Neringa Ramanauskė, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Biomass Self-Sufficiency in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, February.

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    Keywords

    agriculture; climate change; mitigation; adaptation; economic models; shared socioeconomic pathways;
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