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Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling

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  • Christoph Müller
  • Richard D. Robertson

Abstract

Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Müller & Richard D. Robertson, 2014. "Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 37-50, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:45:y:2014:i:1:p:37-50
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/agec.12088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gosme, Marie & Suffert, Frédéric & Jeuffroy, Marie-Hélène, 2010. "Intensive versus low-input cropping systems: What is the optimal partitioning of agricultural area in order to reduce pesticide use while maintaining productivity?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 110-116, February.
    2. Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Aline Mosnier & Michael Obersteiner & Justin S. Baker & Mario Herrero & Mariana C. Rufino & Erwin Schmid, 2013. "Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 442-448.
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    4. Havlík, Petr & Schneider, Uwe A. & Schmid, Erwin & Böttcher, Hannes & Fritz, Steffen & Skalský, Rastislav & Aoki, Kentaro & Cara, Stéphane De & Kindermann, Georg & Kraxner, Florian & Leduc, Sylvain & , 2011. "Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5690-5702, October.
    5. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Hermann Lotze-Campen & Christoph Müller & Alberte Bondeau & Stefanie Rost & Alexander Popp & Wolfgang Lucht, 2008. "Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(3), pages 325-338, November.
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    8. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
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