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Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities

Author

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  • Abhijeet Mishra

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
    Humboldt University of Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association)

  • Galina Churkina

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association)

  • Christopher P. O. Reyer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association)

  • Felicitas Beier

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
    Humboldt University of Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics)

  • Benjamin Leon Bodirsky

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
    World Vegetable Center)

  • Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association)

  • Hermann Lotze-Campen

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
    Humboldt University of Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association)

Abstract

Using engineered wood for construction has been discussed for climate change mitigation. It remains unclear where and in which way the additional demand for wooden construction material shall be fulfilled. Here we assess the global and regional impacts of increased demand for engineered wood on land use and associated CO2 emissions until 2100 using an open-source land system model. We show that if 90% of the new urban population would be housed in newly built urban mid-rise buildings with wooden constructions, 106 Gt of additional CO2 could be saved by 2100. Forest plantations would need to expand by up to 149 Mha by 2100 and harvests from unprotected natural forests would increase. Our results indicate that expansion of timber plantations for wooden buildings is possible without major repercussions on agricultural production. Strong governance and careful planning are required to ensure a sustainable transition to timber cities even if frontier forests and biodiversity hotspots are protected.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhijeet Mishra & Florian Humpenöder & Galina Churkina & Christopher P. O. Reyer & Felicitas Beier & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Alexander Popp, 2022. "Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32244-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w
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    Cited by:

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    2. Linghua Qiu & Junhao He & Chao Yue & Philippe Ciais & Chunmiao Zheng, 2024. "Substantial terrestrial carbon emissions from global expansion of impervious surface area," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Alina Galimshina & Maliki Moustapha & Alexander Hollberg & Sébastien Lasvaux & Bruno Sudret & Guillaume Habert, 2024. "Strategies for robust renovation of residential buildings in Switzerland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Jonah Busch & Jacob J. Bukoski & Susan C. Cook-Patton & Bronson Griscom & David Kaczan & Matthew D. Potts & Yuanyuan Yi & Jeffrey R. Vincent, 2024. "Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(9), pages 996-1002, September.
    5. Huang, Jing & Han, Wenjing & Zhang, Zhengfeng & Ning, Shanshan & Zhang, Xiaoling, 2024. "The decoupling relationship between land use efficiency and carbon emissions in China: An analysis using the Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Hurmekoski, Elias & Kunttu, Janni & Heinonen, Tero & Pukkala, Timo & Peltola, Heli, 2023. "Does expanding wood use in construction and textile markets contribute to climate change mitigation?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Zhao, Jianheng & Daigneault, Adam & Weiskittel, Aaron & Wei, Xinyuan, 2023. "Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

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