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Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets

Author

Listed:
  • Michael G. Windisch

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt University of Berlin
    ETH Zurich)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Leon Merfort

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association
    Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Jan Philipp Dietrich

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Jens Heinke

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Christoph Müller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Gabriel Abrahao

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Hermann Lotze-Campen

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association
    Humboldt University of Berlin)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Member of the Leibniz Association
    Kassel Institute for Sustainability
    University of Kassel)

Abstract

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s CO2 emission reduction goals heavily relies on enhancing carbon storage and sequestration in forests globally. Yet, the increasing vulnerability of carbon stored in forests to both climate change and human intervention is often neglected in current mitigation strategies. Our study explores modelled interactions between key emission sectors, indicating that accelerated decarbonization could meet climate objectives despite forest carbon losses due to disturbances. However, delaying action on forest carbon loss by just five years consistently doubles the additional mitigation costs and efforts across key sectors, regardless of the assessed forest disturbance rates. Moreover, these myopic responses to forest carbon loss are as stringent, or even more demanding, than immediate responses to twice the forest disturbance rate. Our results underline the urgent need to monitor and safeguard forests for the economic feasibility of the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Windisch & Florian Humpenöder & Leon Merfort & Nico Bauer & Gunnar Luderer & Jan Philipp Dietrich & Jens Heinke & Christoph Müller & Gabriel Abrahao & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Alexander Popp, 2025. "Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-57607-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-57607-x
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