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Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Ou

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Christopher Roney

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    Electric Power Research Institute)

  • Jameel Alsalam

    (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Katherine Calvin

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Jared Creason

    (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Jae Edmonds

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Allen A. Fawcett

    (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Page Kyle

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Kanishka Narayan

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Patrick O’Rourke

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Pralit Patel

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Shaun Ragnauth

    (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Steven J. Smith

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Haewon McJeon

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Abstract

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Ou & Christopher Roney & Jameel Alsalam & Katherine Calvin & Jared Creason & Jae Edmonds & Allen A. Fawcett & Page Kyle & Kanishka Narayan & Patrick O’Rourke & Pralit Patel & Shaun Ragnauth & Ste, 2021. "Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26509-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Shenglin & Yuan, Rong, 2023. "Sectoral convergence analysis of China's emissions intensity and its implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    2. Graham, Neal T. & Gakkhar, Nikhil & Singh, Akash Deep & Evans, Meredydd & Stelmach, Tanner & Durga, Siddarth & Godara, Rakesh & Gajera, Bhautik & Wise, Marshall & Sarma, Anil K., 2022. "Integrated analysis of increased bioenergy futures in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

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