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Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Tong

    (Tsinghua University
    University of California
    Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • David J. Farnham

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Lei Duan

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Qiang Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Nathan S. Lewis

    (Carnegie Institution for Science
    California Institute of Technology)

  • Ken Caldeira

    (Carnegie Institution for Science
    4110 Carillon Pt.)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (University of California
    Carnegie Institution for Science
    University of California)

Abstract

If future net-zero emissions energy systems rely heavily on solar and wind resources, spatial and temporal mismatches between resource availability and electricity demand may challenge system reliability. Using 39 years of hourly reanalysis data (1980–2018), we analyze the ability of solar and wind resources to meet electricity demand in 42 countries, varying the hypothetical scale and mix of renewable generation as well as energy storage capacity. Assuming perfect transmission and annual generation equal to annual demand, but no energy storage, we find the most reliable renewable electricity systems are wind-heavy and satisfy countries’ electricity demand in 72–91% of hours (83–94% by adding 12 h of storage). Yet even in systems which meet >90% of demand, hundreds of hours of unmet demand may occur annually. Our analysis helps quantify the power, energy, and utilization rates of additional energy storage, demand management, or curtailment, as well as the benefits of regional aggregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26355-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26355-z
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    3. Bo Wang & Limao Wang & Shuai Zhong & Ning Xiang & Qiushi Qu, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Cuenca, Juan J. & Daly, Hannah E. & Hayes, Barry P., 2023. "Sharing the grid: The key to equitable access for small-scale energy generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    5. Nan, Shijing & Huo, Yuchen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Assessing the role of globalization on renewable energy consumption: New evidence from a spatial econometric analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Haozhe Yang & Ranjit Deshmukh & Sangwon Suh, 2023. "Global transcontinental power pools for low-carbon electricity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Kim, Jeongdong & Qi, Meng & Park, Jinwoo & Moon, Il, 2023. "Revealing the impact of renewable uncertainty on grid-assisted power-to-X: A data-driven reliability-based design optimization approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
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