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Effect of modeled time horizon on quantifying the need for long-duration storage

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  • Sánchez-Pérez, P.A.
  • Staadecker, Martin
  • Szinai, Julia
  • Kurtz, Sarah
  • Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia

Abstract

Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES) has gained interest due to its key role in attaining a decarbonized, low-cost, and stable grid driven by variable renewable electricity (VRE). Currently, there is a wide range of LDES technologies being developed to provide electricity with 8+ hours of consecutive discharge. However, current capacity expansion models used in long-term planning processes rarely consider low cost LDES as a candidate technology. If they do, the storage balancing horizon (SBH) of the model usually only considers non-consecutive 1-day periods that do not capture the potential of LDES to shift energy across multiple days or even seasons. Addressing these limitations in existing models, this work explores the ways in which the optimal energy storage changes when increasing the number of consecutive days in the SBH and how these changes will impact planners who are determining the future roles of energy storage. Our analysis uses SWITCH, an open-source capacity expansion model with a high spatial resolution for the entire Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) in a zero-carbon scenario in 2050. We find that the number of consecutive days in the SBH changes both the total selected power and energy capacity of LDES when storage energy and power capacity overnight costs are $13 USD/kWh (or less) and $113 USD/kW, respectively. We also find that the amount of required energy in storage to drive a future VRE-driven WECC grid ranges from 2.5 TWh to 16.0 TWh depending on the length of the SBH. The optimal storage duration (energy to power ratio) we obtain ranges from 10 h to 620 h among all the scenarios. Furthermore, depending on the storage cost assumption, we observe different charge/discharge patterns when varying the length of the SBH. Given our results, we anticipate that as more LDES technologies become commercially available, it will be critical to increase the length of the SBH to fully capture the benefits of LDES assets in long-term planning processes of high VRE-driven grids.

Suggested Citation

  • Sánchez-Pérez, P.A. & Staadecker, Martin & Szinai, Julia & Kurtz, Sarah & Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia, 2022. "Effect of modeled time horizon on quantifying the need for long-duration storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:317:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922004275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119022
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    1. Savelli, Iacopo & Howey, David & Morstyn, Thomas, 2025. "Locating large-scale energy storage: spillover effects, carbon emissions, and balancing costs across Italy," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Julia K. Szinai & David Yates & Pedro A. Sánchez-Pérez & Martin Staadecker & Daniel M. Kammen & Andrew D. Jones & Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez, 2024. "Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Ken Oshiro & Shinichiro Fujimori, 2024. "Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Saad, Dimitri M. & Sodwatana, Mo & Sherwin, Evan D. & Brandt, Adam R., 2025. "Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 385(C).
    5. Andreij Selänniemi & Magnus Hellström & Margareta Björklund-Sänkiaho, 2024. "Long-Duration Energy Storage—A Literature Review on the Link between Variable Renewable Energy Penetration and Market Creation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-30, July.
    6. Rangrang Zheng & Greg Schivley & Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez & Matthias Fripp & Michael J. Roberts, 2024. "Optimal transmission expansion minimally reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. electricity," Working Papers 2024-2, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    7. Rangrang Zheng & Greg Schivley & Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez & Matthias Fripp & Michael J. Roberts, 2024. "Optimal transmission expansion modestly reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. electricity," Papers 2402.14189, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.

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