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A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Arnulf Grubler

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Charlie Wilson

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    University of East Anglia (UEA))

  • Nuno Bento

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL), DINÂMIA’CET)

  • Benigna Boza-Kiss

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Volker Krey

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • David L. McCollum

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Narasimha D. Rao

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Graz University of Technology
    Colorado School of Mines)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Imperial College London)

  • Simon Stercke

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Imperial College London)

  • Jonathan Cullen

    (University of Cambridge Department of Engineering)

  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Oliver Fricko

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Fei Guo

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Matt Gidden

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Daniel Huppmann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Gregor Kiesewetter

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Peter Rafaj

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Wolfgang Schoepp

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnulf Grubler & Charlie Wilson & Nuno Bento & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Volker Krey & David L. McCollum & Narasimha D. Rao & Keywan Riahi & Joeri Rogelj & Simon Stercke & Jonathan Cullen & Stefan Frank & O, 2018. "A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 515-527, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:3:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1038_s41560-018-0172-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6
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