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Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Elke Stehfest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Hans Meijl

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Peter Witzke

    (University of Bonn)

  • Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Michiel Dijk

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Jonathan C. Doelman

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Thomas Fellmann

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)

  • Jason F. L. Koopman

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Andrzej Tabeau

    (Wageningen Economic Research)

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions represent around 10–12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions and have a key role to play in achieving a 1.5 °C (above pre-industrial) climate stabilization target. Using a multi-model assessment approach, we quantify the potential contribution of agriculture to the 1.5 °C target and decompose the mitigation potential by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism. The results show that the livestock sector will be vital to achieve emission reductions consistent with the 1.5 °C target mainly through emission-reducing technologies or structural changes. Agriculture may contribute emission reductions of 0.8–1.4 Gt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) yr−1 at just US$20 per tCO2e in 2050. Combined with dietary changes, emission reductions can be increased to 1.7–1.8 GtCO2e yr−1. At carbon prices compatible with the 1.5 °C target, agriculture could even provide average emission savings of 3.9 GtCO2e yr−1 in 2050, which represents around 8% of current GHG emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Frank & Petr Havlík & Elke Stehfest & Hans Meijl & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez & Michiel Dijk & Jonathan C. Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Jason F. L. Koopman & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Va, 2019. "Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 66-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0358-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Vermont, Bruno & De Cara, Stéphane, 2010. "How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture?: A meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1373-1386, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xingyue Chen & Qifeng Che & Guoxiong Chen & Tingting Hu & Jing Zhang & Qihong Tu, 2025. "Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Analysis of Driving Factors in Jiangxi Province’s Livestock Industry from a Life Cycle Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Miaoling Bu & Weiming Xi & Yu Wang & Guofeng Wang, 2024. "Scenario-Based Modeling of Agricultural Nitrous Oxide Emissions in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Wang, Bin & Deng, Jianqiang & Wang, Tengfei & Zhang, Yiyin & Lan, Jian, 2024. "Optimizing nitrogen application rates to maximize productivity while reducing environmental risk by regulating nitrogen and water utilization in mixed cropping systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    5. Hu, Yanan & Duan, Weili & Zou, Shan & Chen, Yaning & De Maeyer, Philippe & Van de Voorde, Tim & Takara, Kaoru & Kayumba, Patient Mindje & Kurban, Alishir & Goethals, Peter L.M., 2024. "Coupling coordination analysis of the water-food-energy‑carbon nexus for crop production in Central Asia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    6. Sam Van Hoof, 2023. "Climate Change Mitigation in Agriculture: Barriers to the Adoption of Carbon Farming Policies in the EU," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Wu, Hui & Yue, Qiong & Guo, Ping & Xu, Xiaoyu, 2025. "Exploiting the potential of carbon emission reduction in cropping-livestock systems: Managing water-energy-food nexus for sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PB).
    8. Jensbye, Laerke & Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng, 2022. "Nationally determined contributions and scenarios of agricultural emission reductions at country level," Conference papers 333465, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2023. "Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 99-123, January.
    10. Himics, Mihaly & Giannakis, Elias & Kushta, Jonilda & Hristov, Jordan & Sahoo, Amarendra & Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio, 2022. "Co-benefits of a flexitarian diet for air quality and human health in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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