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Nationally determined contributions and scenarios of agricultural emission reductions at country level

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  • Jensbye, Laerke
  • Clora, Francesco
  • Yu, Wusheng

Abstract

Reductions in GHG emissions to reach the Paris Agreement’s commitments will affect all sectors, including agriculture. The size of such commitments in the agricultural sector is likely to differ across countries. This creates the potential for shifts in competitiveness between producers from different countries, resulting in changes in production and trade patterns. In this paper, we first perform a cluster analysis to determine the likelihood of countries setting ambitious targets within their agricultural sector, using multiple dimensions for comparison. Second, these country-specific estimated climate targets for the agricultural sector (in addition to alternative technological developments) are utilized in simulating several alternative scenarios towards 2030, using a recursive dynamic CGE model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensbye, Laerke & Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng, 2022. "Nationally determined contributions and scenarios of agricultural emission reductions at country level," Conference papers 333465, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333465
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    1. Stefan Frank & Petr Havlík & Elke Stehfest & Hans Meijl & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez & Michiel Dijk & Jonathan C. Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Jason F. L. Koopman & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Va, 2019. "Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 66-72, January.
    2. McDougall, Robert & Alla Golub, 2007. "GTAP-E: A Revised Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Research Memoranda 2959, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Chepeliev, Maksym, 2020. "GTAP-Power 10 Data Base: A Technical Note," GTAP Research Memoranda 5938, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy;

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