Agricultural production, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India

It is frequently acknowledged that the economy of India and in particular its agricultural sectors will face serious water challenges over the coming decades (e.g. Rosegrant et al., 2013 and Rodriguez et al., 2013). Population growth coupled with economic growth of nearly 7% per year to 2035 will translate into strong growth in food demand, crop production, and demand for water for irrigation. Growing demand for irrigation, when coupled with industrial, residential, and commercial demands for water, is projected to result in intense competition for water in India. However, the intensity of this competition will not be uniform across different Agro Ecological Zones (AEZs) of this country. In particular, the impact of climate change on irrigation is likely to be differentially felt across AEZs. Hence, while irrigation adoption is commonly suggested as an important alternative response to climate change, changes in water scarcity can change the extent that this policy can be implemented. This paper develops and uses an advanced computable general equilibrium (CGE) model coupled with biophysical data on land and water resources by AEZ at a river basin level to mainly examine: 1) the consequences of the climate change for India’s agricultural and food products; 2) the extent to which water scarcity can affect the irrigation adoption and demand for water; and 3) how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent.