IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v39y2008i3p325-338.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • Christoph Müller
  • Alberte Bondeau
  • Stefanie Rost
  • Alexander Popp
  • Wolfgang Lucht

Abstract

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for food and bio-energy production, biodiversity conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. The potential of technological change in agriculture to adapt to these trends is subject to considerable uncertainty. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a mathematical programming model covering the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types in 10 economic regions worldwide at a spatial resolution of three by three degrees, i.e., approximately 300 by 300 km at the equator. It takes regional economic conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields and land and water constraints into account and derives specific land-use patterns for each grid cell. Shadow prices for binding constraints can be used to valuate resources for which in many places no markets exist, especially irrigation water. In this article, we describe the model structure and validation. We apply the model to possible future scenarios up to 2055 and derive required rates of technological change (i.e., yield increase) in agricultural production in order to meet future food demand. Copyright (c) 2008 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermann Lotze-Campen & Christoph Müller & Alberte Bondeau & Stefanie Rost & Alexander Popp & Wolfgang Lucht, 2008. "Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(3), pages 325-338, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:39:y:2008:i:3:p:325-338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00336.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Huey-Lin & Thomas Hertel & Brent Sohngen & Navin Ramankutty, 2005. "Towards An Integrated Land Use Database for Assessing the Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation," GTAP Technical Papers 1900, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. Harris, Jonathan M. & Kennedy, Scott, 1999. "Carrying capacity in agriculture: global and regional issues," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 443-461, June.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Page Kyle & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlik & Hans Meijl & Tomoko Hasegawa & Alexander Popp & Christoph Schmitz & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Valin & Dirk Willenbocke, 2014. "Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 103-116, January.
    2. Wang, Xiaoxi & Biewald, Anne & Dietrich, Jan Philipp & Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Humpenöder, Florian & Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon & Popp, Alexander, 2016. "Taking account of governance: Implications for land-use dynamics, food prices, and trade patterns," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 12-24.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    4. Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Thomas W. Hertel, 2016. "Confronting the Food–Energy–Environment Trilemma: Global Land Use in the Long Run," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(3), pages 545-570, March.
    5. Christoph Müller & Richard D. Robertson, 2014. "Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 37-50, January.
    6. Thierry Brunelle & Patrice Dumas, 2012. "Can Numerical Models Estimate Indirect Land-use Change?," Working Papers 2012.65, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Dakhlalla, Abdullah O. & Parajuli, Prem B. & Ouyang, Ying & Schmitz, Darrel W., 2016. "Evaluating the impacts of crop rotations on groundwater storage and recharge in an agricultural watershed," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 332-343.
    8. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    9. repec:eee:agiwat:v:203:y:2018:i:c:p:75-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:ecolec:v:144:y:2018:i:c:p:148-159 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Working Papers JRC106835, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    12. Belyaeva, Maria & Bokusheva, Raushan, 2017. "Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach," IAMO Discussion Papers 253788, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    13. Biewald, Anne & Rolinski, Susanne & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Schmitz, Christoph, 2011. "Implementing Bilateral Trade in a Global Landuse Model," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114251, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Belyaeva, Maria & Bokusheva, Raushan, 2017. "Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach
      [Wird der Klimawandel der russischen Getreideproduktion nutzen oder schaden? Statistische
      ," IAMO Discussion Papers 161, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    15. repec:zbw:iamodp:253788 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Alexander Popp & Steven Rose & Katherine Calvin & Detlef Vuuren & Jan Dietrich & Marshall Wise & Elke Stehfest & Florian Humpenöder & Page Kyle & Jasper Vliet & Nico Bauer & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Dav, 2014. "Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 495-509, April.
    17. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    18. repec:eee:agisys:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:103-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Krause, Michael & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Popp, Alexander, 2009. "Spatially-explicit scenarios on global cropland expansion and available forest land in an integrated modelling framework," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51751, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. repec:eee:ecomod:v:263:y:2013:i:c:p:233-243 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Balogh, Peter & Ertsey, Imre & Szucs, Istvan, 2009. "Answer to the challenges of the 21st century in the Hungarian pig sector," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51027, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. MAgPIE in Wikipedia English ne '')

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:39:y:2008:i:3:p:325-338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.