IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-60245-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global land and carbon consequences of mass timber products

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Lan

    (Yale University
    North Carolina State University)

  • Alice Favero

    (RTI International)

  • Yuan Yao

    (Yale University)

  • Robert O. Mendelsohn

    (Yale University)

  • Hannah Szu-Han Wang

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Mass timber products can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing steel and cement. However, the increase in wood demand raises wood prices, and the environmental consequences of these market changes are unclear. Here we investigate the global carbon and land use impacts of adopting mass timber products, focusing on cross-laminated timber as a case study. Our results show that higher wood prices reduce the production of traditional wood products but expand productive forestland by 30.7–36.5 million hectares from 2020 to 2100 and lead to more intensive forest management. If the cumulative global cross-laminated timber production reaches 3.6 to 9.6 billion m3 by 2100, long-term carbon storage can increase by 20.3–25.2 GtCO2e, primarily in forests (16.1–17.7 GtCO2e) and in cross-laminated timber panels (4.1–8.1 GtCO2e). Including emission reductions from steel, cement, and traditional wood products, the net reduction of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions will be 25.6–39.0 GtCO2e.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Lan & Alice Favero & Yuan Yao & Robert O. Mendelsohn & Hannah Szu-Han Wang, 2025. "Global land and carbon consequences of mass timber products," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-60245-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-60245-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-60245-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-60245-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morland, Christian & Schier, Franziska & Janzen, Niels & Weimar, Holger, 2018. "Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: Specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 92-105.
    2. Daigneault, Adam J. & Sohngen, Brent & Kim, Sei Jin, 2016. "Estimating welfare effects from supply shocks with dynamic factor demand models," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-51.
    3. Favero, Alice & Massetti, Emanuele, 2014. "Trade of woody biomass for electricity generation under climate mitigation policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 166-190.
    4. Favero, Alice & Mendelsohn, Robert & Sohngen, Brent, 2018. "Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11 °C Warming?," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 388-413, August.
    5. Xiaohui Tian & Brent Sohngen & Justin Baker & Sara Ohrel & Allen A. Fawcett, 2018. "Will U.S. Forests Continue to Be a Carbon Sink?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(1), pages 97-113.
    6. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn, 2003. "An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 448-457.
    7. Peter Berrill & Eric J. H. Wilson & Janet L. Reyna & Anthony D. Fontanini & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2022. "Author Correction: Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(11), pages 1068-1068, November.
    8. Prakash Nepal & Craig M. T. Johnston & Indroneil Ganguly, 2021. "Effects on Global Forests and Wood Product Markets of Increased Demand for Mass Timber," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Peter Berrill & Eric J. H. Wilson & Janet L. Reyna & Anthony D. Fontanini & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2022. "Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(8), pages 712-718, August.
    10. Mendelsohn, Robert & Sohngen, Brent, 2019. "The Net Carbon Emissions from Historic Land Use and Land Use Change," Journal of Forest Economics, now publishers, vol. 34(3-4), pages 263-283, November.
    11. Abhijeet Mishra & Florian Humpenöder & Galina Churkina & Christopher P. O. Reyer & Felicitas Beier & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Alexander Popp, 2022. "Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Sharma, Aashish & Saxena, Abhishek & Sethi, Muneesh & Shree, Venu & Varun, 2011. "Life cycle assessment of buildings: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 871-875, January.
    13. Daigneault, Adam & Favero, Alice, 2021. "Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Rao, K. Usha & Kishore, V.V.N., 2010. "A review of technology diffusion models with special reference to renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 1070-1078, April.
    15. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
    16. Cindy X. Chen & Francesca Pierobon & Indroneil Ganguly, 2019. "Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT) Produced in Western Washington: The Role of Logistics and Wood Species Mix," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Purohit, Pallav & Kandpal, Tara C., 2005. "Renewable energy technologies for irrigation water pumping in India: projected levels of dissemination, energy delivery and investment requirements using available diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 592-607, December.
    18. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn & Brent Sohngen, 2017. "Using forests for climate mitigation: sequester carbon or produce woody biomass?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 195-206, September.
    19. Galina Churkina & Alan Organschi & Christopher P. O. Reyer & Andrew Ruff & Kira Vinke & Zhu Liu & Barbara K. Reck & T. E. Graedel & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2020. "Buildings as a global carbon sink," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 269-276, April.
    20. T. W. Crowther & H. B. Glick & K. R. Covey & C. Bettigole & D. S. Maynard & S. M. Thomas & J. R. Smith & G. Hintler & M. C. Duguid & G. Amatulli & M.-N. Tuanmu & W. Jetz & C. Salas & C. Stam & D. Piot, 2015. "Mapping tree density at a global scale," Nature, Nature, vol. 525(7568), pages 201-205, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Jianheng & Daigneault, Adam & Weiskittel, Aaron & Wei, Xinyuan, 2023. "Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    2. Daigneault, Adam & Favero, Alice, 2021. "Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Baker, J.S. & Wade, C.M. & Sohngen, B.L. & Ohrel, S. & Fawcett, A.A., 2019. "Potential complementarity between forest carbon sequestration incentives and biomass energy expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 391-401.
    4. Daigneault, Adam & Baker, Justin S. & Guo, Jinggang & Lauri, Pekka & Favero, Alice & Forsell, Nicklas & Johnston, Craig & Ohrel, Sara & Sohngen, Brent, 2021. "How the Future of the Global Forest Sink Depends on Timber Demand, Forest Management, and Carbon Prices," CEnREP Working Papers 340059, North Carolina State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Alina Galimshina & Maliki Moustapha & Alexander Hollberg & Sébastien Lasvaux & Bruno Sudret & Guillaume Habert, 2024. "Strategies for robust renovation of residential buildings in Switzerland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Martínez-Cortés, Oscar Geovani & Kant, Shashi & Isufllari, Henrieta, 2024. "Forest sector models for tropical countries - A case study of Colombia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Favero, Alice & Mendelsohn, Robert & Sohngen, Brent, 2016. "Carbon Storage and Bioenergy: Using Forests for Climate Mitigation," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 232215, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Sohngen, Brent & Favero, Alice & Jin, Yufang & Huang, Yuhan, 2018. "Global cost estimates of forest climate mitigation with albedo: A new policy approach," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274307, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Kim, Sei Jin & Baker, Justin S. & Sohngen, Brent L. & Shell, Michael, 2018. "Cumulative global forest carbon implications of regional bioenergy expansion policies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 198-219.
    10. Favero, Alice & Sohngen, Brent & Hamilton, W. Parker, 2022. "Climate change and timber in Latin America: Will the forestry sector flourish under climate change?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn & Brent Sohngen, 2017. "Using forests for climate mitigation: sequester carbon or produce woody biomass?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 195-206, September.
    12. Monge, Juan J. & Bryant, Henry L. & Gan, Jianbang & Richardson, James W., 2016. "Land use and general equilibrium implications of a forest-based carbon sequestration policy in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 102-120.
    13. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn, 2013. "Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy," Working Papers 2013.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 122862, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Cindy X. Chen & Francesca Pierobon & Susan Jones & Ian Maples & Yingchun Gong & Indroneil Ganguly, 2021. "Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Mass Timber and Concrete Residential Buildings: A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Creutzburg, Leonard & Lieberherr, Eva, 2021. "To log or not to log? Actor preferences and networks in Swiss forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Ovando, Paola & Caparrós, Alejandro, 2009. "Land use and carbon mitigation in Europe: A survey of the potentials of different alternatives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 992-1003, March.
    18. Zhang, Hongji & Ding, Tao & Sun, Yuge & Huang, Yuhan & He, Yuankang & Huang, Can & Li, Fangxing & Xue, Chen & Sun, Xiaoqiang, 2023. "How does load-side re-electrification help carbon neutrality in energy systems: Cost competitiveness analysis and life-cycle deduction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    19. Tavoni, Massimo & Sohngen, Brent & Bosetti, Valentina, 2007. "Forestry and the carbon market response to stabilize climate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5346-5353, November.
    20. Daigneault, Adam J. & Sohngen, Brent L. & Sedjo, Roger, 2020. "Carbon and market effects of U.S. forest taxation policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-60245-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.