IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nev/wpaper/wp200803.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Welfare Effects from Supply Shocks with Dynamic Factor Demand Models

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Daigneault
  • Brent Sohngen

Abstract

This paper examines how the demand for commodities adjusts to supply shocks, and shows the importance of capturing this adjustment process when calculating welfare effects. A dynamic capital adjustment model for U.S. softwood stumpage markets is developed, and compared to a traditional lagged adjustment model. The results show that timber markets in the U.S. adjusted to the large supply shock of the late 1980's over a 5 to 8 year period. Our short-run price elasticity estimates are similar to the existing literature, ranging from -0.002 to -0.253, although our estimates show that the demand is substantially more elastic in the long-run, with long-run elasticity estimates ranging from -0.134 to -0.506. If this adjustment in the demand function is taken into account when calculating welfare effects, the effects of the supply shock in timber markets of the late 1980's on consumer surplus declines by over 50% compared to the estimated effects when using the short-run model, and the total welfare effects decline by 37%.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Daigneault & Brent Sohngen, 2008. "Estimating Welfare Effects from Supply Shocks with Dynamic Factor Demand Models," NCEE Working Paper Series 200803, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Feb 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:nev:wpaper:wp200803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/working-paper-estimating-welfare-effects-supply-shocks-dynamic-factor-demand
    File Function: First version, 2008
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsiao, Cheng & Fujiki, Hiroshi, 1998. "Nonstationary Time-Series Modeling versus Structural Equation Modeling: With an Application to Japanese Money Demand," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 16(1), pages 57-79, May.
    2. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
    3. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Statistical Properties of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimator Under Cointegration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(3), pages 385-398.
    4. Brian C. Murray & David N. Wear, 1998. "Federal Timber Restrictions and Interregional Arbitrage in U.S. Lumber," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(1), pages 76-91.
    5. Treadway, Arthur B, 1971. "The Rational Multivariate Flexible Accelerator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 845-855, September.
    6. Song, Nianfu & Aguilar, Francisco X. & Shifley, Stephen R. & Goerndt, Michael E., 2012. "Analysis of U.S. residential wood energy consumption: 1967–2009," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2116-2124.
    7. Song, Nianfu & Chang, Sun Joseph & Aguilar, Francisco X., 2011. "U.S. softwood lumber demand and supply estimation using cointegration in dynamic equations," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 19-33, January.
    8. Merrifield, David E & Haynes, Richard W, 1985. "A Cost Analysis of the Lumber and Plywood Industries in Two Pacific Northwest Sub-regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 19(3), pages 16-33, November.
    9. George C. Davis & Maria Cristina Espinoza, 1998. "A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 868-879.
    10. David H. Newman & David N. Wear, 1993. "Production Economics of Private Forestry: A Comparison of Industrial and Nonindustrial Forest Owners," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 674-684.
    11. N. Wear, David & Murray, Brian C., 2004. "Federal timber restrictions, interregional spillovers, and the impact on US softwood markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 307-330, March.
    12. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
    13. Treadway, Arthur B., 1974. "The globally optimal flexible accelerator," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 17-39, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2019. "A supply-demand modeling of the Swiss roundwood market: Actors responsiveness and CO2 implications," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-113.
    2. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2017. "The Swiss market for construction wood : estimating elasticities with time series simultaneous equations," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258659, Agricultural Economics Society.
    3. Ferris, Ann E. & Frank, Eyal G., 2021. "Labor market impacts of land protection: The Northern Spotted Owl," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2019. "A supply-demand modeling of the Swiss roundwood market: Actors responsiveness and CO2 implications," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-113.
    2. Parajuli, Rajan & Zhang, Daowei & Chang, Sun Joseph, 2016. "Modeling stumpage markets using vector error correction vs. simultaneous equation estimation approach: A case of the Louisiana sawtimber market," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 16-19.
    3. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2017. "The Swiss market for construction wood : estimating elasticities with time series simultaneous equations," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258659, Agricultural Economics Society.
    4. Anthony N. Rezitis & A. Blake Brown & William E. Foster, 1998. "Adjustment costs and dynamic factor demands for U.S. cigarette manufacturing," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 18(3), pages 217-231, May.
    5. Krysiak, Frank C., 2006. "Stochastic intertemporal duality: An application to investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1363-1387, August.
    6. Zhang, Xufang & Sun, Changyou & Munn, Ian A. & Gordon, Jason, 2021. "How to protect the U.S. forest products industry from the perspective of trade? A comparison of policies within the forest supply chain," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Umanath Malaiarasan & R. Paramasivam & K. Thomas Felix & S. J. Balaji, 2020. "Simultaneous equation model for Indian sugar sector," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(1), pages 113-141, June.
    8. Song, Nianfu & Chang, Sun Joseph & Aguilar, Francisco X., 2011. "U.S. softwood lumber demand and supply estimation using cointegration in dynamic equations," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 19-33, January.
    9. LeBlanc, Michael & Hrubovcak, James, 1984. "An Analytical Framework For Examining Investment In Agriculture," Staff Reports 277581, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:4:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Price, Simon & Nasim, Anjum, 1998. "Modelling inflation and the demand for money in Pakistan; cointegration and the causal structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, January.
    12. Ferenc Kiss & Bernard Lefebvre, 1987. "Econometric models of telecommunications firms : a survey," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(2), pages 307-374.
    13. Jeffrey Bernstein & Anwar Shah, 1994. "Taxes and production: The case of Pakistan," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 1(3), pages 227-245, October.
    14. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:473-522 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Zhai, Jun & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2023. "An econometric study of Oregon's log and lumber markets: Estimation of price elasticities using two approaches," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Petter Vegard Hansen & Lars Lindholt, 2008. "The market power of OPEC 1973-2001," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2939-2959.
    17. Yan Shen & Cheng Hsiao & Hiroshi Fujiki, 2005. "Aggregate vs. disaggregate data analysis-a paradox in the estimation of a money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 579-601.
    18. Bornali Bhandari, 2013. "Cross-Price Effects and US Trade Elasticities," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(3), pages 273-313, August.
    19. Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva & Souza, Geraldo Silva & Ellery, Roberto, 2013. "An Evaluation of the tolerant to higher inflation rate in the short run by the Brazilian Central Bank in the period 2001-2012," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    20. Eric Hillebrand & Faik Koray, 2008. "Interest rate volatility and home mortgage loans," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2381-2385.
    21. Ferris, Ann E. & Frank, Eyal G., 2021. "Labor market impacts of land protection: The Northern Spotted Owl," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    22. Parajuli, Rajan & Sarangi, Sudipta & Chang, Sun Joseph & Hill, R. Carter, 2016. "The United States-Canada softwood lumber trade: An actual versus optimal export tax," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 112-119.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nev:wpaper:wp200803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cynthia Morgan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nepgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.