IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v170y2025ics1389934124002089.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An econometric analysis of supply and demand on Sugi sawlog in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Higuma, Yuji
  • Tachibana, Satoshi

Abstract

This study aims to clarify the supply and demand on Sugi sawlogs, a major product in the Japanese domestic log market, using econometric methods, and to quantify the impact of socio-economic factors on the supply and demand of domestic logs. We develop a dynamic simultaneous equations model for the supply and demand of Sugi sawlogs. The model is estimated using two-stage least squares, and both short-run and long-run elasticities are calculated. In estimating the model, we verify cointegration within variables. The data is based on annual time series data from 1960 to 2019. The study reveals that own price, logging wage, and stand volume in planted forests all have a significant effect on the supply of Sugi sawlogs, indicating that while higher prices of Sugi sawlogs increase suppliers' willingness to supply of Sugi sawlogs, continued low replanting rates might decrease the supply of Sugi sawlogs in the future. In terms of the demand model, this study observes greater long-run elasticities than those reported in previous studies. This result suggests that a structural change could have occurred in the behavior of sawmills in terms of their demand for logs.

Suggested Citation

  • Higuma, Yuji & Tachibana, Satoshi, 2025. "An econometric analysis of supply and demand on Sugi sawlog in Japan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:170:y:2025:i:c:s1389934124002089
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103354
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124002089
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103354?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Sun, Changyou, 2017. "Competition of wood products with different fiber transformation and import sources," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 30-39.
    3. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2019. "A supply-demand modeling of the Swiss roundwood market: Actors responsiveness and CO2 implications," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-113.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Daigneault, Adam J. & Sohngen, Brent & Kim, Sei Jin, 2016. "Estimating welfare effects from supply shocks with dynamic factor demand models," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 41-51.
    6. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    7. Simona Rasciute & Paul Downward & William H Greene, 2017. "Do Relational Goods Raise Well-Being? An Econometric Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 563-579, September.
    8. Zhai, Jun & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2023. "An econometric study of Oregon's log and lumber markets: Estimation of price elasticities using two approaches," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Rakhal Sarker, 1993. "A Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Analysis of Canadian Lumber Exports," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 41(1), pages 97-110, March.
    11. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Statistical Properties of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimator Under Cointegration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(3), pages 385-398.
    13. Rtta Hanninen & Anne Toppinen, 1999. "Long-run price effects of exchange rate changes in Finnish pulp and paper exports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 947-956.
    14. Song, Nianfu & Chang, Sun Joseph & Aguilar, Francisco X., 2011. "U.S. softwood lumber demand and supply estimation using cointegration in dynamic equations," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 19-33, January.
    15. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    16. Parajuli, Rajan & Sarangi, Sudipta & Chang, Sun Joseph & Hill, R. Carter, 2016. "The United States-Canada softwood lumber trade: An actual versus optimal export tax," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 112-119.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    18. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
    19. Parajuli, Rajan & Zhang, Daowei & Chang, Sun Joseph, 2016. "Modeling stumpage markets using vector error correction vs. simultaneous equation estimation approach: A case of the Louisiana sawtimber market," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 16-19.
    20. ., 2017. "Econometric analysis: loopholes and shortcomings," Chapters, in: Econometrics as a Con Art, chapter 5, pages 88-105, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhai, Jun & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2023. "An econometric study of Oregon's log and lumber markets: Estimation of price elasticities using two approaches," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2017. "The Swiss market for construction wood : estimating elasticities with time series simultaneous equations," 91st Annual Conference, April 24-26, 2017, Royal Dublin Society, Dublin, Ireland 258659, Agricultural Economics Society.
    3. Parajuli, Rajan & Zhang, Daowei & Chang, Sun Joseph, 2016. "Modeling stumpage markets using vector error correction vs. simultaneous equation estimation approach: A case of the Louisiana sawtimber market," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 16-19.
    4. Borzykowski, Nicolas, 2019. "A supply-demand modeling of the Swiss roundwood market: Actors responsiveness and CO2 implications," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-113.
    5. Andrew Crawley & Adam Daigneault & Jonathan Gendron, 2025. "Maine's Forestry and Logging Industry: Building a Model for Forecasting," Papers 2503.06087, arXiv.org.
    6. Adam Daigneault & Jonathan Gendron, 2025. "Forecasting Impacts to the Forest Sector: An Analysis of Key U.S. States and Industries," Papers 2503.23569, arXiv.org.
    7. Song, Nianfu & Chang, Sun Joseph & Aguilar, Francisco X., 2011. "U.S. softwood lumber demand and supply estimation using cointegration in dynamic equations," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 19-33, January.
    8. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    9. Wagatha, Matthias, 2007. "Integration, Kointegration und die Langzeitprognose von Kreditausfallzyklen [Integration, Cointegration and Long-Horizont Forecasting of Credit-Default-Cycles]," MPRA Paper 8602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bent Jesper Christensen & Nabanita Datta Gupta & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2021. "Measuring the impact of clean energy production on CO2 abatement in Denmark: Upper bound estimation and forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 118-149, January.
    11. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Saraiva, Diogo, 2015. "Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 862-875.
    12. Paola Arce & Jonathan Antognini & Werner Kristjanpoller & Luis Salinas, 2019. "Fast and Adaptive Cointegration Based Model for Forecasting High Frequency Financial Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 99-112, June.
    13. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Working Papers 142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    15. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    16. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    17. Bruce E. Hansen, 2018. "Johansen’s Reduced Rank Estimator Is GMM," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-9, May.
    18. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    19. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Russell, Bill & Banerjee, Anindya, 2008. "The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1792-1815, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:170:y:2025:i:c:s1389934124002089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.