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Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Favero
  • Robert Mendelsohn
  • Brent Sohngen

Abstract

It is well known that the forestry sector is sensitive to climate change but most studies have examined impacts only through 2100 and warming of less than 4°C. This is the first timber analysis to consider possible climate change impacts out to 2250 and warming up to 11°C above 1900 levels. The results suggest that large productivity gains through 2190 lead to a continued expansion of the global timber supply. However, as carbon fertilization effects diminish and continued warming causes forestland to continue to shrink, warming above 8°C is predicted to become harmful to the forest sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn & Brent Sohngen, 2017. "Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 263162, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemei:263162
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.263162
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote, 2020. "Evolving Integrated Models From Narrower Economic Tools : the Example of Forest Sector Models," Post-Print hal-02512330, HAL.
    2. Daigneault, Adam & Favero, Alice, 2021. "Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Baker, Justin S. & Van Houtven, George & Phelan, Jennifer & Latta, Gregory & Clark, Christopher M. & Austin, Kemen G. & Sodiya, Olakunle E. & Ohrel, Sara B. & Buckley, John & Gentile, Lauren E. & Mart, 2023. "Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Daigneault, Adam J. & Baker, Justin S. & Favero, Alice, 2020. "A forest model inter-comparison project (For-MIP) to assess the future of forests under climate, policy and technological stressors," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304585, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Favero, Alice & Sohngen, Brent & Hamilton, W. Parker, 2022. "Climate change and timber in Latin America: Will the forestry sector flourish under climate change?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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