IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/agraaa/131-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets

Author

Listed:
  • John T. Saunders

    (Lincoln University)

  • Marcel Adenäuer

    (OECD)

  • Jonathan Brooks

    (OECD)

Abstract

The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand.

Suggested Citation

  • John T. Saunders & Marcel Adenäuer & Jonathan Brooks, 2019. "Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 131, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:131-en
    DOI: 10.1787/dafae86c-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/dafae86c-en
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/dafae86c-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vlada Vitunskienė & Akvilė Aleksandravičienė & Neringa Ramanauskė, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Biomass Self-Sufficiency in the European Union," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Laborde & Simla Tokgoz & Lindsay Shutes & Hugo Valin, 2013. "Assessment framework and operational definitions for long-term scenarios," FOODSECURE Working papers 14, LEI Wageningen UR.
    2. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    3. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    4. Ayami Hayashi & Fuminori Sano & Takashi Homma & Keigo Akimoto, 2023. "Mitigating trade-offs between global food access and net-zero emissions: the potential contribution of direct air carbon capture and storage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    6. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    7. Elke Stehfest, 2014. "Food choices for health and planet," Nature, Nature, vol. 515(7528), pages 501-502, November.
    8. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    9. H. Charles J. Godfray & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 26-44.
    10. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Hostland & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/256, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Jonathan M. Nzuma & Rakhal Sarker, 2010. "An error corrected almost ideal demand system for major cereals in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 43-50, January.
    12. Schmidhuber, J., 2006. "The nutrition transition to 2030: Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    13. Steffen Huck & Gabriele K. Ruchala & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2007. "Pricing and Trust," Discussion Papers 07-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    14. Valin, Hugo & Havlik, Petr & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Impacts of Alternative Climate Change Mitigation Policies on Food Consumption under various Diet Scenarios," Conference papers 332253, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Amanda M. Countryman & Amy D. Hagerman, 2017. "Retrospective Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease Eradication in the Latin American Beef Sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, April.
    16. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. repec:ken:wpaper:0601 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith & Aviv Nevo, 2014. "Do Prices and Attributes Explain International Differences in Food Purchases?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 832-867, March.
    19. Baxter, J. L. & Moosa, I. A., 1996. "The consumption function: A basic needs hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-100, October.
    20. Rahul Anand & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural prices; agricultural productivity; climate change; food security; long-run analysis; partial equilibrium; total factor productivity; trade modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:131-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tdoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.