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Assessment framework and operational definitions for long-term scenarios

  • David Laborde
  • Simla Tokgoz
  • Lindsay Shutes
  • Hugo Valin

To navigate among the long-term challenges for global and national food security, policy makers cannot rely on qualitative analysis only. They also need quantitative tools to measure and rank the different issues that they will face and the policy responses that can be designed. FOODSECURE proposes state-of-the art simulation models that will give both researchers and policy makers the capacity to study these issues in a comprehensive framework. This paper is aimed at providing an overview of the different modeling solutions proposed in the FOODSECURE toolbox and defines a strategy for using the different models in a consistent manner. First, the different models are briefly described and compared. Next, we see how these models tackle key food security indicators and drivers and translate different assumptions about the future within their framework. We then discuss the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models to address different policy questions. Finally, we discuss how to combine these models and which optimal level of model integration should be used for analysis.

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File URL: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/14_Laborde_AssessmentFrameworkLongTermScenarios.pdf
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Paper provided by LEI Wageningen UR in its series FOODSECURE Working papers with number 14.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:14
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  5. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  6. Seale, James & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 184321, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  7. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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