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Long-Term Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security

Author

Listed:
  • David Laborde
  • Simla Tokgoz
  • Maximo Torero

Abstract

Abstract: This paper proposes an analytical framework to list and study the role of key long term drivers of food and nutrition security (FNS). We start by identifying what are the key variables affecting food and nutrition security at the household and the country level, and then define what are the main exogenous or endogenous drivers impacting these variables. We discuss the key drivers of both aggregated food supply and demand, and therefore the consequences on prices. Specifically for aggregated food demand we discuss demographic increase, income growth, changes in preferences, aggregated domestic distortions and overall quality of the food system. With respect to the drivers of aggregated food supply we discuss the land available for food products and drivers behind land availability, the share of waste/losses generated by the food system, and the normalized average yield. We define yield as the amount of nutrients produced by unit of land. It depends both on the physical yield of the crop or the livestock, and also on the quality of the food and it can be affected by the changes in production patterns linked to the different dietary patterns of the consumers and by climate change. We emphasize the fact that in many cases, key drivers may have ambiguous effects on the food and nutrition security situation of different agents. For instance, more liberal trade policies will affect real income, terms of trade, demand and supply, returns of factors, foreign direct investments and food prices, thus may lead to the improvement of global level FNS, i.e. the FNS of a majority of people on Earth. However, at the same time, more liberal trade policies may bring food insecurity to some households. Therefore, careful quantitative assessment is needed for each policy option. Finally, we also propose a typology of variables that will help modelers adapt their models to study the different drivers, through both direct and indirect effects.

Suggested Citation

  • David Laborde & Simla Tokgoz & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Long-Term Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security," FOODSECURE Working papers 6, LEI Wageningen UR.
  • Handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:6
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    File URL: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/06_Laborde%20Tokgoz%20Torero_FNS%20drivers.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yu, T. Edward & Tokgoz, Simla & Wailes, Eric & Chavez, Eddie C., 2017. "A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices:," IFPRI book chapters,in: Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 11 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Joseph Francois & Will Martin & Vlad Manole, 2005. "Choosing formulas for market access negotiations: efficiency and market access considerations," Chapters,in: Trade Policy Reforms and Development, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. repec:fpr:resrep:2012ghienglish is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bouet, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2010. "Economics of export taxation in a context of food crisis," IFPRI discussion papers 994, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Venkat, Kumar, 2012. "The Climate Change and Economic Impacts of Food Waste in the United States," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-16, April.
    6. repec:fpr:export:70 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. von Grebmer, Klaus & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Olofinbiyi, Tolulope & Wiesmann, Doris & Fritschel, Heidi & Badiane, Ousmane & Torero, Maximo & Yohannes, Yisehac & Thompson, Jennifer & vo, 2012. "2012 Global hunger index: The challenege of hunger: ensuring sustainable food security under land, water, and energy stresses," Issue briefs 70, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. repec:fpr:ifprib:2012ghienglish is not listed on IDEAS
    9. von Grebmer, Klaus & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Olofinbiyi, Tolulope & Wiesmann, Doris & Fritschel, Heidi & Badiane, Ousmane & Torero, Maximo & Yohannes, Yisehac & Thompson, Jennifer & vo, 2012. "2012 Global hunger index: the challenge of hunger: Ensuring sustainable food security under land, water, and energy stresses," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 2012 GHI English.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2014. "Determinants of food availability and access in Ghana: what can we learn beyond the regression results?," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-12, December.
    2. van Dijk, Michiel & Gramberger, Marc & Laborde, David & Mandryk, Maryia & Shutes, Lindsay & Stehfest, Elke & Valin, Hugo & Zellmer, Katharina, 2015. "Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212624, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. repec:eee:agisys:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:45-57 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality

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