Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture

The European Climate Law mandates the European Union’s climate neutrality objectives by 2050, aligning with the European Green Deal and interim greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors play a crucial role due to their dual function in sequestering carbon and emitting GHGs. This report assesses the potential contribution of the AFOLU sectors to the EU's 2050 targets using CAPRI model scenarios. Recent model enhancements enable a more integrated analysis of GHG emissions and carbon removals, allowing for a detailed assessment of land-based mitigation options. The scenarios assess increased afforestation, sustainable forest management, protection of peatlands, and pricing of AFOLU GHG emissions and removals. Results indicate that reversing GHG emission trends requires significant action, particularly enhanced soil carbon sequestration and climate-smart agricultural practices. The protection of histosols and land conversion towards grassland and forest areas significantly increase carbon dioxide removals, while lower livestock and crop production reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Policies strengthening forest protection and afforestation further enhance the carbon sink capacity of the AFOLU sectors, potentially achieving negative net emissions by 2050. However, it is important to note that emission leakage (i.e., increases in emissions outside the EU) could limit global net reductions.