IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i18p11458-d913460.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming

Author

Listed:
  • Leibin Wang

    (Postdoctoral Research Station of Geography, Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change, School of Geographic Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China)

  • Robert V. Rohli

    (Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences, College of the Coast & Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
    Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Qigen Lin

    (Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Shaofei Jin

    (Department of Geography, MinJiang University, Fuzhou 350108, China)

  • Xiaodong Yan

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

Extreme heatwaves are among the most important climate-related disasters affecting public health. Assessing heatwave-related population exposures under different warming scenarios is critical for climate change adaptation. Here, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble output results are applied over several warming periods in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report, to estimate China’s future heatwave population exposure under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Our results show a significant increase in projected future annual heatwave days (HD) under both scenarios. With an additional temperature increase of 0.5 °C to 2.0 °C of warming, by mid-century an additional 20.15 percent increase in annual HD would occur, over 1.5 °C warming. If the climate warmed from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C by mid-century, population exposure would increase by an additional 40.6 percent. Among the three influencing elements that cause the changes in population exposure related to heatwaves in China–climate, population, and interaction (e.g., as urbanization affects population redistribution)–climate plays the dominant role in different warming scenarios (relative contribution exceeds 70 percent). Therefore, considering the future heat risks, humanity benefits from a 0.5 °C reduction in warming, particularly in eastern China. This conclusion may provide helpful insights for developing mitigation strategies for climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Leibin Wang & Robert V. Rohli & Qigen Lin & Shaofei Jin & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:18:p:11458-:d:913460
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/18/11458/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/18/11458/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bryan Jones & Claudia Tebaldi & Brian C. O’Neill & Keith Oleson & Jing Gao, 2018. "Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 423-437, February.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    4. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    5. Matthias Themeßl & Andreas Gobiet & Georg Heinrich, 2012. "Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 449-468, May.
    6. John R. Nairn & Robert J. B. Fawcett, 2014. "The Excess Heat Factor: A Metric for Heatwave Intensity and Its Use in Classifying Heatwave Severity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    8. Nikolaos Christidis & Gareth S. Jones & Peter A. Stott, 2015. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 46-50, January.
    9. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. De Cian, Enrica & Wing, Ian Sue, "undated". "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 232222, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Juliette N. Rooney-Varga & Florian Kapmeier & John D. Sterman & Andrew P. Jones & Michele Putko & Kenneth Rath, 2020. "The Climate Action Simulation," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(2), pages 114-140, April.
    5. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    6. Parinaz Rashidi & Sopan D. Patil & Aafke M. Schipper & Rob Alkemade & Isabel Rosa, 2023. "Downscaling Global Land-Use Scenario Data to the National Level: A Case Study for Belgium," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    8. Kılkış, Şiir, 2024. "Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios for avoiding increments of global warming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    9. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), "undated". "The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050," The Future of Food and Agriculture 319842, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    10. Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.
    11. O'Neill, Brian, 2016. "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their extension and use in impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies," Conference papers 332808, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Roberto Roson & Richard Damania, the World Bank, Washington D.C., 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity," EcoMod2016 9167, EcoMod.
    13. P. Marcos-Garcia & M. Pulido-Velazquez & C. Sanchis-Ibor & M. García-Mollá & M. Ortega-Reig & A. Garcia-Prats & C. Girard, 2023. "From local knowledge to decision making in climate change adaptation at basin scale. Application to the Jucar River Basin, Spain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-23, April.
    14. Koundouri, Phoebe & Papayiannis, Georgios I. & Vassilopoulos, Achilleas & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2023. "Probabilistic Scenario-Based Assessment of National Food Security Risks with Application to Egypt and Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 122007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Vanessa J. Schweizer, 2020. "Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1705-1722, October.
    16. Enrica Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2019. "Global Energy Consumption in a Warming Climate," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(2), pages 365-410, February.
    17. Vivek Srikrishnan & Yawen Guan & Richard S. J. Tol & Klaus Keller, 2022. "Probabilistic projections of baseline twenty-first century CO2 emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Walelign, Solomon Zena & Lujala, Päivi, 2022. "A place-based framework for assessing resettlement capacity in the context of displacement induced by climate change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
    20. Turnheim, Bruno & Nykvist, Björn, 2019. "Opening up the feasibility of sustainability transitions pathways (STPs): Representations, potentials, and conditions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 775-788.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:18:p:11458-:d:913460. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.