IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/csa/wpaper/2014-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Africa Different? Historical Conflict and State Development

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Dincecco
  • James Fenske
  • Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato

Abstract

We show that the long-run consequences of historical warfare are different for Sub-Saharan Africa than for the rest of the Old World. We identify the locations of over 1,750 conflicts in Africa, Asia, and Europe from 1400 to 1799. We find that historical warfare predicts greater state capacity today across the Old World, including in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is no significant correlation between historical warfare and current civil conflicts across the rest of the Old World. However, this correlation is strong and positive in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, while a history of conflict predicts higher per capita GDP for the rest of the Old World, this positive consequence is overturned for Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Dincecco & James Fenske & Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato, 2014. "Is Africa Different? Historical Conflict and State Development," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-35, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f378c6fa-bca0-44b4-af07-f900a193b237
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    2. Akyeampong,Emmanuel & Bates,Robert H. & Nunn,Nathan & Robinson,James (ed.), 2014. "Africa's Development in Historical Perspective," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107041158, October.
    3. Nathan Nunn, 2008. "The Long-term Effects of Africa's Slave Trades," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(1), pages 139-176.
    4. Nathan Nunn & Diego Puga, 2012. "Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 20-36, February.
    5. Jha, Saumitra & Wilkinson, Steven, 2012. "Does Combat Experience Foster Organizational Skill? Evidence from Ethnic Cleansing during the Partition of South Asia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 883-907, November.
    6. Galor, Oded & Ashraf, Quamrul, 2007. "Cultural Assimilation, Cultural Diffusion and the Origin of the Wealth of Nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 6444, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Mark Dincecco & Mauricio Prado, 2012. "Warfare, fiscal capacity, and performance," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 171-203, September.
    8. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    9. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation, and Politics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1218-1244, September.
    10. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    11. Lindert,Peter H., 2009. "Growing Public," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521529174, October.
    12. repec:oxf:wpaper:wps/2014-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bockstette, Valerie & Chanda, Areendam & Putterman, Louis, 2002. "States and Markets: The Advantage of an Early Start," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 347-369, December.
    14. Bezemer, Dirk & Bolt, Jutta & Lensink, Robert, 2014. "Slavery, Statehood, and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-163.
    15. Nicola Gennaioli & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2015. "State Capacity and Military Conflict," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 1409-1448.
    16. Bellows, John & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "War and local collective action in Sierra Leone," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1144-1157, December.
    17. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    18. Jha, Saumitra & Wilkinson, Steven, 2012. "Veterans, Organizational Skill and Ethnic Cleansing: Evidence from the Partition of South Asia," Research Papers 2092, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    19. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata, 2017. "1807: Economic shocks, conflict and the slave trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 66-76.
    20. Nicola Gennaioli & Ilia Rainer, 2007. "The modern impact of precolonial centralization in Africa," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 185-234, September.
    21. Hoffman, Philip T., 2012. "Why Was It Europeans Who Conquered the World?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 601-633, August.
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Camilo García-Jimeno & James A. Robinson, 2015. "State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2364-2409, August.
    23. Nathan Nunn & Leonard Wantchekon, 2011. "The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3221-3252, December.
    24. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2013. "Taxation and Development," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 041, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    25. Leander Heldring, 2014. "State Capacity and Violence: Evidence from the Rwandan genocide," CSAE Working Paper Series 2014-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    26. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    27. repec:cep:stieop:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Diego Comin & William Easterly & Erick Gong, 2010. "Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in 1000 BC?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 65-97, July.
    29. Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, 2016. "State History and Contemporary Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Documentos de Trabajo 475, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    30. Gareth Austin, 2008. "The 'reversal of fortune' thesis and the compression of history: Perspectives from African and comparative economic history," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 996-1027.
    31. Nunn, Nathan, 2014. "Historical Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 347-402, Elsevier.
    32. Eltis, David, 1987. "Economic Growth and the Ending of the Transatlantic Slave Trade," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195041354.
    33. Warren Whatley & Rob Gillezeau, 2011. "The Impact of the Transatlantic Slave Trade on Ethnic Stratification in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 571-576, May.
    34. Hariri, Jacob Gerner, 2012. "The Autocratic Legacy of Early Statehood," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 471-494, August.
    35. Whatley, Warren, 2012. "The Gun-Slave Cycle in the 18th century British slave trade in Africa," MPRA Paper 44492, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Mark Dincecco & Gabriel Katz, 2016. "State Capacity and Long‐run Economic Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 189-218, February.
    37. Dincecco, Mark & Katz, Gabriel, 2012. "State Capacity and Long-Run Performance," MPRA Paper 38299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata, 2015. "Climate and the slave trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 19-32.
    39. Rasler, Karen A. & Thompson, William R., 1985. "War Making and State Making: Governmental Expenditures, Tax Revenues, and Global Wars," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 491-507, June.
    40. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
    41. Akyeampong,Emmanuel & Bates,Robert H. & Nunn,Nathan & Robinson,James (ed.), 2014. "Africa's Development in Historical Perspective," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107691209, October.
    42. Cox, Gary W, 2011. "War, Moral Hazard, and Ministerial Responsibility: England After the Glorious Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 133-161, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Farewell to Arms? The Consequences of Warfare in Sub-Sahara Africa
      by missiaia in NEP-HIS blog on 2015-10-07 15:51:57

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    2. Traviss Cassidy & Mark Dincecco & Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato, 2015. "The Economic Legacy of Warfare: Evidence from European Regions," Working Papers 6/2015, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Jul 2015.
    3. Albers, Thilo N.H. & Jerven, Morten & Suesse, Marvin, 2023. "The Fiscal State in Africa: Evidence from a Century of Growth," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 65-101, January.
    4. Metin M. Coşgel & Thomas J. Miceli & Sadullah Yıldırım, 2023. "Religion, rulers, and conflict," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 439-480, September.
    5. Mark Dincecco & James Fenske & Anil Menon & Shivaji Mukherjee, 2022. "Pre-Colonial Warfare and Long-Run Development in India," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 981-1010.
    6. Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2017. "States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Shuo, Chen & Ma, Debin, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 505, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Boxell, Levi & Dalton, John T. & Leung, Tin Cheuk, 2019. "The Slave Trade and Conflict in Africa, 1400-2000," MPRA Paper 94468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2023. "Freedom through taxation: the effect of fiscal capacity on the rule of law," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 69-90, August.
    10. Andrea Papadia, 2024. "Fiscal policy under constraints: Fiscal capacity and austerity during the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(1), pages 90-118, February.
    11. Olsson, Ola & Baaz, Maria Eriksson & Martinsson, Peter, 2020. "Fiscal capacity in “post”-conflict states: Evidence from trade on Congo river," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Jamie Bologna Pavlik & Andrew T. Young, 2023. "Historical Representative Assembly Experiences and Constitutionalism Today," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(4), pages 665-680, December.
    13. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of African Resistance to European Domination: Institutional Mechanism," MPRA Paper 85237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ma, Debin & Chen, Shuo, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CEPR Discussion Papers 15187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Colin O'Reilly & Ryan H. Murphy, 2022. "An Index Measuring State Capacity, 1789–2018," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(355), pages 713-745, July.
    16. Cantoni, Davide & Mohr, Cathrin & Weigand, Matthias, 2019. "The Rise of Fiscal Capacity," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 172, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    17. Oto-Peralías, Daniel, 2020. "Frontiers, warfare and economic geography: The case of Spain," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Artem Kochnev, 2021. "Marching to Good Laws: The Impact of War, Politics, and International Credit on Reforms in Ukraine," wiiw Working Papers 192, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    19. Jamie Bologna Pavlik & Andrew T. Young, 2020. "Medieval European traditions in representation and state capacity today," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 133-186, June.
    20. Witte, Caroline T. & Burger, Martijn J. & Pennings, Enrico, 2020. "When political instability devaluates home-host ties," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2020. "Historical Legacies and African Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 53-128, March.
    2. Okoye, Dozie & Pongou, Roland, 2015. "Sea Change: The Competing Long-Run Impacts of the Transatlantic Slave Trade and Missionary Activity in Africa," MPRA Paper 66221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Leander Heldring, 2019. "The Origins of Violence in Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 299, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Zhang, Yu & Xu, Zhicheng Phil & Kibriya, Shahriar, 2021. "The long-term effects of the slave trade on political violence in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 776-800.
    5. Graziella Bertocchi, 2016. "The legacies of slavery in and out of Africa," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata, 2017. "1807: Economic shocks, conflict and the slave trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 66-76.
    7. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2019. "Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 156-208, May.
    8. Merima Ali & Odd-Helge Fjeldstad & Boqian Jiang & Abdulaziz B Shifa, 2019. "Colonial Legacy, State-building and the Salience of Ethnicity in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1048-1081.
    9. Graziella Bertocchi, 2016. "The Legacies of Slavery in and out of Africa," Department of Economics 0096, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2017. "States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    11. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "The Long-Term Effects of African Resistance to European Domination: Institutional Mechanism," MPRA Paper 85237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    13. James Fenske, 2014. "Ecology, Trade, And States In Pre-Colonial Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 612-640, June.
    14. Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel, 2022. "Que nous apprend la littérature récente sur la « nature et les causes de la richesse des nations » ?," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 289-313.
    15. Birchenall, Javier A., 2023. "Disease and diversity in long-term economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Broich, Tobias & Szirmai, Adam & Thomsson, Kaj, 2015. "Precolonial centralisation, foreign aid and modern state capacity in Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2015-025, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Dincecco, Mark & Katz, Gabriel, 2012. "State Capacity and Long-Run Performance," MPRA Paper 38299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Boxell, Levi, 2019. "Droughts, conflict, and the African slave trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 774-791.
    19. James Fenske, 2014. "Ecology, Trade, And States In Pre-Colonial Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 612-640, 06.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2014-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Coffey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csaoxuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.