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A survival analysis of public guaranteed loans: Does financial intermediary matter?

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  • Caselli, Stefano
  • Corbetta, Guido
  • Cucinelli, Doriana
  • Rossolini, Monica

Abstract

This paper investigates the risk of failure of loans guaranteed by public credit guarantee schemes. We analyse the determinants of the time to default of approximately 15,000 loans guaranteed by the Italian Central Guarantee Fund between 2007 and 2009. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we test the role of the financial intermediary that requests the guarantee on a firm’s behalf, while distinguishing between banks and mutual guarantee institutions (MGIs) and controlling for a set of variables that characterise each guaranteed loan. The findings confirm that loans are more likely to default when a bank—rather than an MGI—is involved in the guarantee process. Considering some elements (e.g. age, size and sector) that affect opacity among small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), banks seem to perform better than MGIs in screening and monitoring loans requested by firms in the manufacturing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Caselli, Stefano & Corbetta, Guido & Cucinelli, Doriana & Rossolini, Monica, 2021. "A survival analysis of public guaranteed loans: Does financial intermediary matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:54:y:2021:i:c:s1572308921000401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100880
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Collateral; Mutual guarantee institution; Bank; State-fund guarantee;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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