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A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs

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  • Chiara Pederzoli

    ()

  • Costanza Torricelli

    ()

Abstract

In the light of the fundamental role played by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries including Italy and of the specific treatment of this issue within the Basel II regulation, the aim of this work is to build a default prediction model for the Italian SMEs. Specifically, we develop a logit model based on financial ratios: using the AIDA database, we focus the attention on a specific region in Italy, Emilia Romagna, where SMEs represent the firms’ majority . We find that a parsimonious model based on only four explanatory variables fits well the default data.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0022, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:0022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. S. Muzzioli, 2010. "Option-based forecasts of volatility: an empirical study in the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 561-586.
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    15. Thiemo Krink & Sandra Paterlini, 2008. "Differential Evolution for Multiobjective Portfolio Optimization," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 021, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    16. Davide Ferrari & Sandra Paterlini, 2007. "The Maximum Lq-Likelihood Method: an Application to Extreme Quantile Estimation in Finance," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0003, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    17. Thiemo Krink & Stefan Mittnik & Sandra Paterlini, 2009. "Differential evolution and combinatorial search for constrained index-tracking," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 153-176, November.
    18. Lyra, M. & Paha, J. & Paterlini, S. & Winker, P., 2010. "Optimization heuristics for determining internal rating grading scales," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2693-2706, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Pederzoli & C. Torricelli, 2013. "Efficiency and unbiasedness of corn futures markets: new evidence across the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(24), pages 1853-1863, December.
    2. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2014. "Towards A Macroprudential Policy In The Eu: Main Issues," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0049, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Stefano Cosma & Elisabetta Gualandri, 2013. "The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0042, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    4. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2019. "The impact of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: A preliminary assessment on a stylized portfolio," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0075, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. Elisabetta Gualandri, 2011. "Basel 3, Pillar 2: the role of banks’ internal governance and control function," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0027, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    6. Elisabetta Gualandri & Mario Noera, 2014. "Monitoring Systemic Risk: A Survey Of The Available Macroprudential Toolkit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0050, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    7. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2011. "Modelling credit risk for innovative firms: the role of innovation measures," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0025, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    8. Francesca Arnaboldi, Francesca Gioia, 2019. "Portfolio choice: Evidence from new-borns," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0078, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    9. Dean Altshuler & Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Introducing Aggregate Return on Investment as a Solution to the Contradiction Between Some PME Metrics and IRR," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0056, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2013. "The financing of Italian firms and the credit crunch: findings and exit strategies," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0041, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    11. Massimo Baldini & Giovanni Gallo & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Past Income Scarcity and Current Perception of Financial Fragility," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0064, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    12. Yao-Zhi Xu & Jian-Lin Zhang & Ying Hua & Lin-Yue Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Credit Risk Evaluation Method for E-Commerce Sellers Based on a Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    13. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Pseudo-naïve approaches to investment performance measurement," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0051, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    14. Enrico Rubaltelli & Sergio Agnoli & Michela Rancan & Tiziana Pozzoli, 2015. "Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0053, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    15. Stefano Cosma & Francesca Pancotto & Paola Vezzani, 2018. "Customer Complaining and Probability of Default in Consumer Credit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0068, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default prediction; SMEs; Basel II;

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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