IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wdi/papers/2006-854.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia

Author

Listed:
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Christa Hainz
  • Anton Malesich

Abstract

Banks entering an emerging market face a lot of uncertainty about the risks involved in lending. We use a unique unbalanced panel of nearly 700 shortterm loans made to SMEs in Slovakia between January 2000 and June 2005. Of the loans granted, on average 6.0 per cent of the firms defaulted. Several probit models and panel probit models show that liquidity and profitability factors are important determinants of SMEs defaults, while debt factors are less robust. However, we find that above average indebtedness significantly increases the probability of default. Moreover, the legal form that determines liability has important incentive effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Christa Hainz & Anton Malesich, 2006. "Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp854, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-854
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57234/1/wp854.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bester, Helmut, 1994. "The Role of Collateral in a Model of Debt Renegotiation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 72-86, February.
    2. Bonin, John P. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Wachtel, Paul, 2005. "Privatization matters: Bank efficiency in transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8-9), pages 2155-2178, August.
    3. Klapper, Leora & Sarria-Allende, Virginia & Zaidi, Rida, 2006. "A firm-level analysis of small and medium size enterprise financing in Poland," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3984, The World Bank.
    4. Evžen Kocenda & Martin Vojtek, 2011. "Default Predictors in Retail Credit Scoring: Evidence from Czech Banking Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 80-98, November.
    5. Simeon Djankov & Peter Murrell, 2002. "Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 739-792, September.
    6. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2005. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 43-75, October.
    7. Fernández-Val, Iván, 2009. "Fixed effects estimation of structural parameters and marginal effects in panel probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 71-85, May.
    8. Arturo Bris & Ivo Welch & Ning Zhu, 2006. "The Costs of Bankruptcy: Chapter 7 Liquidation versus Chapter 11 Reorganization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1253-1303, June.
    9. Sumit Agarwal & Robert Hauswald, 2007. "Distance and information asymmetries in lending decisions," Proceedings 1052, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Berger, Allen N & Frame, W Scott & Miller, Nathan H, 2005. "Credit Scoring and the Availability, Price, and Risk of Small Business Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 191-222, April.
    12. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth & Eva Horváthová, 2010. "Corporate Interest Rates and the Financial Accelerator in the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 41-54, January.
    13. Chakraborty, Atreya & Hu, Charles X., 2006. "Lending relationships in line-of-credit and nonline-of-credit loans: Evidence from collateral use in small business," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 86-107, January.
    14. Régis Blazy & Laurent Weill, 2006. "Why Do Banks Ask for Collateral and Which Ones ?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2006-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    16. Bilsen, Valentijn & Konings, Jozef, 1998. "Job Creation, Job Destruction, and Growth of Newly Established, Privatized, and State-Owned Enterprises in Transition Economies: Survey Evidence from Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 429-445, September.
    17. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2000. "Controlling the fiscal costs of banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2441, The World Bank.
    18. Altman, Edward I. & Suggitt, Heather J., 2000. "Default rates in the syndicated bank loan market: A mortality analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 229-253, January.
    19. Bester, Helmut, 1987. "The role of collateral in credit markets with imperfect information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 887-899, June.
    20. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2006/149, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    22. R�gis Blazy & Laurent Weill, 2013. "Why do banks ask for collateral in SME lending?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1109-1122, July.
    23. Altman, Edward I, 1989. " Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 909-922, September.
    24. Franks, Julian R & Lóránth, Gyöngyi, 2005. "A Study of Inefficient Going Concerns in Bankruptcy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Juraj Zeman & Pavol Jurca, 2008. "Macro Stress Testing of the Slovak Banking Sector," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2008, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    26. Martin Vojtek & Evžen Koèenda, 2006. "Credit-Scoring Methods (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(3-4), pages 152-167, March.
    27. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
    28. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Hainz, Christa, 2003. "Bank competition and credit markets in transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 223-245, June.
    30. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    31. Ms. Irina Tytell & Selim Elekdag & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Nikolay Gueorguiev & Mr. Christoph Duenwald & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 2005/128, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "What's the point of credit scoring?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
    34. Zuzana Fungacova, 2007. "Can the Market Fix a Wrong Administrative Decision? Massive Delisting on the Prague Stock Exchange," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp335, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    35. Holmstrom, Bengt, 1996. "Financing of Investment in Eastern Europe: A Theoretical Perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 205-237.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martina Lawless & Fergal McCann, 2013. "Determinants of Default: Evidence from a Sector-level Panel of Irish SME Loans," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(4), pages 473-488.
    2. McCann, Fergal & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "Determinants of SME Loan Default: The Importance of Borrower-Level Heterogeneity," Research Technical Papers 06/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Klein, Caroline & Price, Robert & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2013. "Slovakia: A Catching Up Euro Area Member In and Out of the Crisis," IZA Policy Papers 55, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2014. "Euro Membership, Foreign Banks And Credit Developments During The Financial Crisis In Slovakia: A Case Study," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(1), March.
    5. Jaroslav BELAS & Yuriy BILAN & Aleksandr Kljucnikov & Zuzana Vincurova & Jiri Machacek, 2015. "Actual Problems Of Business Risk In Sme Segment. Case Study From Slovakia," International Journal of Entrepreneurial Knowledge, Center for International Scientific Research of VSO and VSPP, vol. 3(1), pages 46-56, June.
    6. Weber, Ron & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Microfinance for Agricultural Firms- Credit Access and Loan Repayment in Tanzania," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122552, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 111-129, August.
    8. Fergal McCann & Tara McIndoe-Calder, 2015. "Firm size, credit scoring accuracy and banks' production of soft information," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3594-3611, July.
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth & Eva Horváthová, 2010. "Corporate Interest Rates and the Financial Accelerator in the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 41-54, January.
    10. Fantazzini, Dean & DeGiuli, Maria Elena & Figini, Silvia & Giudici, Paolo, 2009. "Enhanced credit default models for heterogeneous SME segments," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 25, pages 31-39.
    11. Jarko Fidrmuc & Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms and Loan Defaults," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, May.
    12. David Mares & Gabriela Dlaskova, 2016. "Small and Medium-Sized Enterprizes – Opportunities and Challenges," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 78-87.
    13. Dorfleitner, G. & Just-Marx, S. & Priberny, C., 2017. "What drives the repayment of agricultural micro loans? Evidence from Nicaragua," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 89-100.
    14. repec:ags:aoeisl:170471 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Fantazzini, Dean, 2008. "Credit Risk Management," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 12(4), pages 84-137.
    16. McCann, Fergal & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2014. "Property debt overhang: the case of Irish SMEs," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Ewald Nowotny, 2011. "A Forward-looking View on Catching-up Strategies from an Austrian Angle," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Ciampi, Francesco, 2015. "Corporate governance characteristics and default prediction modeling for small enterprises. An empirical analysis of Italian firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1012-1025.
    19. Ekaterina Tzvetanova, 2019. "Adaptation of the Altman’s Corporate Insolvency Prediction Model – The Bulgarian Case," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 125-142.
    20. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2011. "Modelling credit risk for innovative firms: the role of innovation measures," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0025, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    21. Caselli, Stefano & Corbetta, Guido & Cucinelli, Doriana & Rossolini, Monica, 2021. "A survival analysis of public guaranteed loans: Does financial intermediary matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    22. RNuket Kirci Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Real and Financial Sector Studies in Central and Eastern Europe: A Review," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 2-31, February.
    23. Weber, Ron & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Microfinance for agricultural firms - What can we learn from bank data?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126708, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jarko Fidrmuc & Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms and Loan Defaults," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, May.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato & Xuan Zhang, 2016. "Analysing the Determinants of Credit Risk for General Insurance Firms in the UK," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1591, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cerrato, Mario & Zhang, Xuan, 2017. "Analysing the determinants of insolvency risk for general insurance firms in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 107-122.
    4. Abdelghani Maddi, 2018. "Analyse scientométrique de la crise économique," CEPN Working Papers 2018-08, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Neuberger, Doris & Rungruxsirivorn, Ornsiri, 2012. "Collateral and its substitutes in emerging markets’ lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 817-834.
    6. Abdelghani Maddi, 2018. "Analyse scientométrique de la crise économique : Courants de pensée, auteurs influents et thématiques," Working Papers hal-01922256, HAL.
    7. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    8. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
    9. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    10. Kislat, Carmen & Menkhoff, Lukas & Neuberger, Doris, 2013. "The use of collateral in formal and informal lending," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79765, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Rahman Ashiqur & Belas Jaroslav & Rahman M. Twyeafur, 2017. "Determinants of SME Finance: Evidence from Three Central European Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(3), pages 263-285, September.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    13. Amira Dridi & Mohamed El Ghourabi & Mohamed Limam, 2012. "On monitoring financial stress index with extreme value theory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 329-339, March.
    14. Berger, Allen N. & Espinosa-Vega, Marco A. & Frame, W. Scott & Miller, Nathan H., 2011. "Why do borrowers pledge collateral? New empirical evidence on the role of asymmetric information," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 55-70, January.
    15. Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Yolanda Fuertes-Call鮠 & Bego uti鲲ez-Nieto & Beatriz Cuellar-Fernᮤez, 2014. "Path modelling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3798-3811, November.
    16. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    17. Mousavi, Mohammad M. & Ouenniche, Jamal & Xu, Bing, 2015. "Performance evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models: An orientation-free super-efficiency DEA-based framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 64-75.
    18. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    19. Jean Pierre Allegret, 2012. "Responses of Monetary Authorities in Emerging Economies to International Financial Crises: What Do We Really know?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-32.
    20. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SME; Credit; Loan Default; Mortality Rates; Incentives; Probit; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-854. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wdumius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: WDI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wdumius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.