IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mod/wcefin/10061.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Pederzoli

    ()

  • Costanza Torricelli

    ()

Abstract

In the light of the fundamental role played by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries including Italy and of the specific treatment of this issue within the Basel II regulation, the aim of this work is to build a default prediction model for the Italian SMEs. Specifically, we develop a logit model based on financial ratios: using the AIDA database, we focus the attention on a specific region in Italy, Emilia Romagna, where SMEs represent the firms’ majority . We find that a parsimonious model based on only four explanatory variables fits well the default data.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 10061, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:10061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cefin.unimore.it/sites/default/files/CefinWP22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2009. "Accounting and economic measures:An integrated theory of capital budgeting," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 09121, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    2. Thiemo Krink & Sandra Paterlini, 2008. "Differential Evolution for Multiobjective Portfolio Optimization," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 021, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Lyra, M. & Paha, J. & Paterlini, S. & Winker, P., 2010. "Optimization heuristics for determining internal rating grading scales," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2693-2706, November.
    4. Davide Ferrari & Sandra Paterlini, 2007. "The Maximum Lq-Likelihood Method: an Application to Extreme Quantile Estimation in Finance," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07071, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. S. Muzzioli, 2010. "Option-based forecasts of volatility: an empirical study in the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 561-586.
    6. Costanza Torricelli, 2009. "Models For Household Portfolios And Life-Cycle Allocations In The Presence Of Labour Income And Longevity Risk," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 09033, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    7. Riccardo Ferretti & Francesco Pattarin, 2008. "Is public information really public? The role of newspapers," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08013, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    8. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2010. "Average internal rate of return and investment decisions: A new perspective," PROYECCIONES FINANCIERAS Y VALORACION 006653, MASTER CONSULTORES.
    9. Simona Castellani & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2008. "Indebtedness, macroeconomic conditions and banks’ loan losses: evidence from Italy," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08014, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Giuseppe Marotta, 2008. "Lending interest rate pass-through in the euro area. A data-driven tale," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 08101, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    11. Thiemo Krink & Stefan Mittnik & Sandra Paterlini, 2009. "Differential evolution and combinatorial search for constrained index-tracking," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 153-176, November.
    12. Elisabetta Gualandri & Andrea Landi & Valeria Venturelli, 2009. "Financial crisis and new dimensions of liquidity risk: rethinking prudential regulation and supervision," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 7, pages 24-42, July.
    13. Marianna Brunetti, 2007. "Population Ageing, Household Portfolios and Financial Asset Returns: a Survey of the Literature," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 171-208.
    14. repec:col:000162:006653 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:col:000162:005983 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marianna SUCCURRO & Lidia MANNARINO, 2014. "The Impact Of Financial Structure On Firms’ Probability Of Bankruptcy: A Comparison Across Western Europe Convergence Regions," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 81-94.
    2. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:5:p:433:d:69335 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. C. Pederzoli & C. Torricelli, 2013. "Efficiency and unbiasedness of corn futures markets: new evidence across the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(24), pages 1853-1863, December.
    4. Stefano Cosma & Francesca Pancotto & Paola Vezzani, 2018. "Customer Complaining and Probability of Default in Consumer Credit," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 18031, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    5. You Zhu & Chi Xie & Bo Sun & Gang-Jin Wang & Xin-Guo Yan, 2016. "Predicting China’s SME Credit Risk in Supply Chain Financing by Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Network and Hybrid Models," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(5), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 111-129, August.
    7. Enrico Rubaltelli & Sergio Agnoli & Michela Rancan & Tiziana Pozzoli, 2015. "Emotional Intelligence and risk taking in investment decision-making," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 15107, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    8. Stefano Cosma & Elisabetta Gualandri, 2014. "The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 2, pages 48-60, February.
    9. Carlo Alberto Magni, 2015. "Pseudo-naïve approaches to investment performance measurement," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 15021, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    10. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2013. "The financing of Italian firms and the credit crunch: findings and exit strategies," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13101, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    11. Massimo Baldini & Giovanni Gallo & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Past Income Scarcity and Current Perception of Financial Fragility," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 17121, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default prediction; SMEs; Basel II;

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mod:wcefin:10061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giuseppe Marotta) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/demodit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.