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Incrementality of SME Loan Guarantees

Author

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  • Allan Riding

    ()

  • Judith Madill
  • George Haines

Abstract

In many countries, loan guarantee programs are important elements of government policy with respect to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). If loan guarantee schemes are to be effective, a majority of firms obtaining assistance through such a scheme ought not to be able to obtain financing from existing sources: a property known as incrementality or additionality. This paper describes a new approach to measuring incrementality. This work uses a two-stage process to estimate the incrementality of loans made under the terms of the Canada Small Business Financing (CSBF) program. First, a logistic regression-based model of loan outcomes (essentially a credit-scoring model) is estimated based on a large representative sample of SMEs. The resulting model was consistent with prior expectations and exhibited high levels of goodness-of-fit. The model was then employed to classify a sample of firms that had received loans under the terms of the loan guarantee scheme. Incremental loans ought to be classified as “turndowns” by the model; hence the proportion of loan guarantee recipients that the model classified as turndowns is a direct measure of incrementality. For the CSBF loan guarantee program incrementality was estimated (with 95% confidence) as 74.8±9.0%. Copyright Springer 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Riding & Judith Madill & George Haines, 2007. "Incrementality of SME Loan Guarantees," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 47-61, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:29:y:2007:i:1:p:47-61
    DOI: 10.1007/s11187-005-4411-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1983. "Incentive Effects of Terminations: Applications to the Credit and Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 912-927, December.
    2. Riding, Allan L. & HainesJR., George, 2001. "Loan guarantees: Costs of default and benefits to small firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 595-612, November.
    3. Cowling, Marc & Mitchell, Peter, 2003. "Is the Small Firms Loan Guarantee Scheme Hazardous for Banks or Helpful to Small Business?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 63-71, August.
    4. Bester, Helmut, 1985. "Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 850-855, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:tefoso:v:127:y:2018:i:c:p:166-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. André van Stel & David Storey & Chantal Hartog, 2010. "Institutions and Entrepreneurship: The Role of The Rule of Law," Scales Research Reports H201003, EIM Business and Policy Research.
    3. repec:eee:chieco:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:98-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ono, Arito & Uesugi, Iichiro & Yasuda, Yukihiro, 2013. "Are lending relationships beneficial or harmful for public credit guarantees? Evidence from Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee Program," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 151-167.
    5. Honohan, Patrick, 2010. "Partial credit guarantees: Principles and practice," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, April.
    6. D'Ignazio, Alessio & Menon, Carlo, 2012. "The causal effect of credit guarantees for SMEs: evidence from Italy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58555, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Raquel Ortega-Argilés & Marco Vivarelli & Peter Voigt, 2009. "R&D in SMEs: a paradox?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 3-11, June.
    8. repec:wfo:wstudy:61057 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Marusca De Castris & Guido Pellegrini, 2015. "Italian Public Guarantees To Sme: The Impact On Regional Growth," Working Papers 0615, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2015.
    10. repec:eee:respol:v:47:y:2018:i:7:p:1344-1365 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1106-4 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    additionality; incrementality; small business; loan guarantees; G18; G28; M13; O17;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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