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The effect of credit guarantees on credit availability and delinquency rates

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  • Cowan, Kevin
  • Drexler, Alejandro
  • Yañez, Álvaro

Abstract

We use new data to examine whether credit guarantees affect economic incentives and whether they affect the credit available to small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs). We find that firms that have both guaranteed and non-guaranteed loans are 1.67% more likely to miss payments on their guaranteed loans, but are not more likely to default on these loans. These findings suggest that guarantees affect firms’ incentives to repay loans but not their long-term performance. We also find that firms selected into the guarantee programs are 1.17% more likely to default on their loans compared with similar firms that borrow without guarantees. Since we find evidence that long-term performance is not affected by guarantees, the higher default rates among firms selected into the guarantee programs must be the consequence of adverse selection. We also find that credit guarantees increase the aggregated amount of credit; in particular, one additional dollar of guarantees increases the total credit for SMEs by US$ 0.65.

Suggested Citation

  • Cowan, Kevin & Drexler, Alejandro & Yañez, Álvaro, 2015. "The effect of credit guarantees on credit availability and delinquency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 98-110.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:59:y:2015:i:c:p:98-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.04.024
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    2. Legendre, Nicolas & Nitani, Miwako & Riding, Allan, 2021. "Are franchises really more viable? Evidence from loan defaults," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 23-33.
    3. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Stefania Patrizia Sonia Rossi, 2019. "Risk Aversion And Entrepreneurship: Financing Innovation For Smes Across Europe. Evidence From Multilevel Models," Working Papers 201902, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    4. Kalyvas, Antonios Nikolaos & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2017. "Do creditor rights and information sharing affect the performance of foreign banks?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 13-35.
    5. Rodrigo Martín-García & Jorge Morán Santor, 2021. "Public guarantees: a countercyclical instrument for SME growth. Evidence from the Spanish Region of Madrid," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 427-449, January.
    6. Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Schmukler, Sergio, 2016. "Public Credit Guarantees and Access to Finance," Economic Research Papers 269324, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    7. Hennecke, Peter & Neuberger, Doris & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2017. "The economic and fiscal value of German guarantee banks," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 152, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    8. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Stefania P. S. Rossi, 2020. "How firms finance innovation. Further empirics from European SMEs," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 689-714, November.
    9. Peter Hennecke & Doris Neuberger & Dirk Ulbricht, 2019. "The economic and fiscal benefits of guarantee banks in Germany," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 771-794, October.
    10. Ruth Ben‐Yashar & Miriam Krausz & Shmuel Nitzan, 2018. "Government loan guarantees and the credit decision‐making structure," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(2), pages 607-625, May.
    11. Wilcox, James A. & Yasuda, Yukihiro, 2019. "Government guarantees of loans to small businesses: Effects on banks’ risk-taking and non-guaranteed lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 45-57.
    12. World Bank Group, 2018. "Toolkit for Impact Evaluation of Public Credit Guarantee Schemes for SMEs," World Bank Publications - Reports 30514, The World Bank Group.
    13. Mascia, Danilo V. & Rossi, Stefania P.S., 2017. "Is there a gender effect on the cost of bank financing?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 136-153.
    14. Nabamita Dutta, 2019. "The Obstacle Named 'Corruption': An Empirical Analysis of Indian Firms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 17, pages 51-64, August.
    15. Yingli Wang & Qingpeng Zhang & Xiaoguang Yang, 2018. "Evolution of the Chinese Guarantee Network under Financial Crisis and Stimulus Program," Papers 1804.05667, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    16. Bing Xu & Jingwen Yang & Sonia Dasí-Rodríguez, 2020. "Determinants of credit availability for high-tech start-ups," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1483-1501, December.
    17. Li, Bo & An, Si-min & Song, Dong-ping, 2018. "Selection of financing strategies with a risk-averse supplier in a capital-constrained supply chain," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 163-183.
    18. Bing Xu & Jingwen Yang & Sonia Dasí-Rodríguez, 0. "Determinants of credit availability for high-tech start-ups," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-19.
    19. William Mullins & Patricio Toro, 2018. "Credit Guarantees and New Bank Relationships," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 820, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Nitani, Miwako & Legendre, Nicolas, 2021. "Cooperative lenders and the performance of small business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Caselli, Stefano & Corbetta, Guido & Cucinelli, Doriana & Rossolini, Monica, 2021. "A survival analysis of public guaranteed loans: Does financial intermediary matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; Financial intermediation; Guarantees; Credit constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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