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Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jeffrey Schafer, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03," Working Papers 57398, Congressional Budget Office.
  2. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus In Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 0683, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  3. Easaw Joshy & Golinelli Roberto, 2010. "Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, November.
  4. Carlos Capistr¡N & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, March.
  5. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
  6. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
  7. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2018. "Fiscal stimulus in an expectation driven liquidity trap," BERG Working Paper Series 138, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_021 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019. "A behavioral model of the credit cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
  10. Pfajfar, Damjan, 2013. "Formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1434-1452.
  11. Yara de Almeida Campos Cordeiro & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2017. "Inattention in individual expectations," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 17(1), pages 40-59.
  12. Singh, Gaurav Kumar & Bandyopadhyay, Tathagata, 2021. "Determinants of Disagreement: Learning from Indian Inflation Expectations Survey of Households," IIMA Working Papers WP 2021-01-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  13. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Xing Zhang, 2017. "Heterogeneous Or Homogeneous Inflation Expectation Formation Models: A Case Study Of Chinese Households And Financial Participants," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(04), pages 859-874, September.
  14. Zolotoy, Leon & Frederickson, James R. & Lyon, John D., 2017. "Aggregate earnings and stock market returns: The good, the bad, and the state-dependent," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 157-175.
  15. Shintani, Mototsugu & Ueda, Kozo, 2023. "Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  16. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2014. "Inflation expectation dynamics: the role of past present and forward looking information," Working Papers hal-03473828, HAL.
  17. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield & Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability with Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 255-279, December.
  18. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010. "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
  19. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2013. "Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 59-67.
  20. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward‐ and backward‐looking information for inflation expectations formation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 733-748, December.
  21. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 5, pages 183-229, Elsevier.
  22. Abe, Naohito & Ueno, Yuko, 2015. "Measuring Inflation Expectations: Consumers' Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP15-5, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  23. Locarno, Alberto & Delle Monache, Davide & Busetti, Fabio & Gerali, Andrea, 2017. "Trust, but verify. De-anchoring of inflation expectations under learning and heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1994, European Central Bank.
  24. Agustín Arias, 2016. "Sentiment Shocks as Drivers of Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 782, Central Bank of Chile.
  25. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 602-623, August.
  26. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "A Sticky-information General Equilibrium Model por Policy Analysis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 8, pages 227-283, Central Bank of Chile.
  27. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 296-316.
  28. Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
  29. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  30. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
  31. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1332-1344, June.
  33. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
  34. Lance Kent, 2015. "Relaxing Rational Expectations," Working Papers 159, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  35. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
  36. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary, 2023. "Sticky information and the Taylor principle," IMFS Working Paper Series 189, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  37. Paul Hubert, 2014. "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
  38. Abhishek Das & Arpita Ghose & Gautam Gupta, 2018. "Expectation Formation in a New Keynesian Economy: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(1), pages 17-39, March.
  39. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Learning in InfIation Expectation Formation: An Empirical Assessment," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 123, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  40. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
  41. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
  42. Gomes, Orlando, 2012. "Thought experimentation and the Phillips curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 45-64.
  43. Piotr Białowolski, 2016. "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 509-528, March.
  44. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
  45. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  46. Agliari, Anna & Pecora, Nicolò & Spelta, Alessandro, 2015. "Coexistence of equilibria in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous beliefs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 83-95.
  47. Sergio Santoro, 2011. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 806, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  48. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
  49. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459462, HAL.
  51. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2018. "Do Heterogeneous Expectations Constitute A Challenge For Policy Interaction?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 2107-2140, December.
  52. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Benjamin K. Johannsen, 2014. "Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Dispersion and Disagreement Within Demographic Groups," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  54. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Inflation targeting and liquidity traps under endogenous credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 48-62.
  55. Hyytinen, Ari & Putkuri, Hanna, 2012. "Household optimism and borrowing," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2012, Bank of Finland.
  56. Ryuichi Yamamoto, 2022. "Predictor Choice, Investor Types, and the Price Impact of Trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 325-356, January.
  57. Sergio Santoro, 2017. "Heterogeneity and learning with complete markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 183-211, June.
  58. Carrera Cesar, 2012. "Estimating Information Rigidity Using Firms' Survey Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, June.
  59. Francesca Pancotto & Giuseppe Pignataro & Davide Raggi, 2015. "Social Learning and Higher Order Beliefs: A Structural Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," LEM Papers Series 2015/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  60. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  61. Hagenhoff, Tim, 2018. "An aggregate welfare optimizing interest rate rule under heterogeneous expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 139, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  62. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
  63. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  64. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
  65. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  66. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability under Satisficing Learning," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_28, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  67. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
  68. Lewis Vivien & Markiewicz Agnieszka, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
  69. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
  70. Waldyr D. Areosa, 2016. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? Public versus private information," Working Papers Series 418, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  71. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
  72. Hyytinen, Ari & Putkuri, Hanna, 2012. "Household optimism and borrowing," Research Discussion Papers 21/2012, Bank of Finland.
  73. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
  74. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
  75. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro Mariano Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2021. "Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons," IMF Working Papers 2021/136, International Monetary Fund.
  76. Vicente da Gama Machado, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers Series 274, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  77. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6g0gsihsjmn5snc9pb0hlas97 is not listed on IDEAS
  78. repec:ctc:serie1:def7 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Scott R. Baker & Tucker S. McElroy & Xuguang S. Sheng, 2020. "Expectation Formation Following Large, Unexpected Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 287-303, May.
  80. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 365-396, March.
  81. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
  82. Gobbi, Lucio & Mazzocchi, Ronny & Tamborini, Roberto, 2019. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the “new normal”," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
  83. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
  84. Fabio Milani, 2012. "The Modeling of Expectations in Empirical DSGE Models: A Survey," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 3-38, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  85. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
  86. Yingying Xu & Zhi-Xin Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Adelina Dumitrescu Peculea & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1098-1113, March.
  87. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
  88. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  89. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6g0gsihsjmn5snc9pb0hlas97 is not listed on IDEAS
  90. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Jingjing Chen & Sultan Salem, 2024. "How official TV news affect public inflation expectations? Evidence from the Chinese national broadcaster China Central Television," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 819-831, January.
  91. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6g0gsihsjmn5snc9pb0hlas97 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Trend inflation and monetary policy regimes in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 137-152.
  93. Jan-Oliver Menz, 2010. "Uncertainty, social norms and consumption theory: Post and New Keynesian approaches," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 125-146.
  94. Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "Fundamental disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
  95. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3v5mev848s8148gjqcbf4mva5q is not listed on IDEAS
  96. Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
  97. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  98. Machado, Vicente da Gama, 2013. "Monetary policy rules, asset prices and adaptive learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 251-258.
  99. Boris Radovanov & Aleksandra Marcikic, 2011. "Uncertainty And Disagreement In Inflation Forecasting," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 20(1), pages 3-18, june.
  100. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2012. "Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 667, Central Bank of Chile.
  101. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  102. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
  103. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  104. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
  105. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2017. "Imperfect Information and Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 933-968, December.
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