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Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach

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Cited by:

  1. Daniel Kosiorowski & Dominik Mielczarek & Jerzy P. Rydlewski & Małgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Generalized Exponential Smoothing In Prediction Of Hierarchical Time Series," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 331-350, June.
  2. Danesi, Ivan Luciano & Haberman, Steven & Millossovich, Pietro, 2015. "Forecasting mortality in subpopulations using Lee–Carter type models: A comparison," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 151-161.
  3. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
  4. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd & Amy R. Kessler, 2016. "Phantoms never die: living with unreliable population data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 975-1005, October.
  5. Hong Li & Yang Lu & Pintao Lyu, 2021. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Less Developed Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, August.
  6. Emanuele Aliverti & Stefano Mazzuco & Bruno Scarpa, 2022. "Dynamic modelling of mortality via mixtures of skewed distribution functions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1030-1048, July.
  7. Kenneth Wong & Jackie Li & Sixian Tang, 2020. "A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 181-212, June.
  8. Risk, J. & Ludkovski, M., 2016. "Statistical emulators for pricing and hedging longevity risk products," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 45-60.
  9. Shang, Han Lin & Hyndman, Rob.J., 2011. "Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1310-1324.
  10. Njenga Carolyn N & Sherris Michael, 2011. "Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-54, July.
  11. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
  12. Rueda, Cristina & Rodríguez, Pilar, 2010. "State space models for estimating and forecasting fertility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 712-724, October.
  13. Laha, A. K. & Rathi, Poonam, 2017. "New Approaches to Prediction using Functional Data Analysis," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-08-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  14. Lei Fang & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2015. "Stochastic Population Analysis: A Functional Data Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  15. Santiago Gall n & Jorge Barrientos, 2021. "Forecasting the Colombian Electricity Spot Price under a Functional Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 67-74.
  16. Lee, Seokho & Shin, Hyejin & Billor, Nedret, 2013. "M-type smoothing spline estimators for principal functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 89-100.
  17. Hervé Cardot & Antoine Godichon-Baggioni, 2017. "Fast estimation of the median covariation matrix with application to online robust principal components analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 26(3), pages 461-480, September.
  18. Alexandros E. Milionis & Nikolaos G. Galanopoulos & Peter Hatzopoulos & Aliki Sagianou, 2022. "Forecasting actuarial time series: a practical study of the effect of statistical pre-adjustments," Working Papers 297, Bank of Greece.
  19. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman, 2016. "Grouped functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  20. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  21. Han Lin Shang & Jiguo Cao & Peijun Sang, 2022. "Stopping time detection of wood panel compression: A functional time‐series approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1205-1224, November.
  22. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  23. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  24. Valeria D’Amato & Steven Haberman & Gabriella Piscopo & Maria Russolillo, 2014. "Computational framework for longevity risk management," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 111-137, January.
  25. Patrizio Vanella & Ugofilippo Basellini & Berit Lange, 2020. "Assessing Excess Mortality in Times of Pandemics Based on Principal Component Analysis of Weekly Mortality Data -- The Case of COVID-19," Working Papers axbhmxrs-o0viyh9z07m, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
  26. Jaap Spreeuw & Iqbal Owadally & Muhammad Kashif, 2022. "Projecting Mortality Rates Using a Markov Chain," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, April.
  27. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310.
  28. Alex Isakson & Simone Krummaker & María Dolores Martínez-Miranda & Ben Rickayzen, 2021. "Calendar Effect and In-Sample Forecasting Applied to Mesothelioma Mortality Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-17, September.
  29. Bali, Juan Lucas & Boente, Graciela, 2014. "Consistency of a numerical approximation to the first principal component projection pursuit estimator," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 181-191.
  30. Antonio Elías & Raúl Jiménez & J. E. Yukich, 2023. "Localization processes for functional data analysis," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 17(2), pages 485-517, June.
  31. Gao, Quansheng & Hu, Chengjun, 2009. "Dynamic mortality factor model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 410-423, December.
  32. Cadena, Meitner & Denuit, Michel, 2016. "Semi-parametric accelerated hazard relational models with applications to mortality projections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-16.
  33. Gleditsch Rebecca Folkman & Syse Astri & Thomas Michael J., 2021. "Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 547-568, September.
  34. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2018. "A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting - The Case of Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-638, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  35. Jorge R. Sosa Donoso & Miguel Flores & Salvador Naya & Javier Tarrío-Saavedra, 2023. "Local Correlation Integral Approach for Anomaly Detection Using Functional Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.
  36. Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J Hyndman, 2013. "Two-dimensional smoothing of mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 26/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  37. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
  38. Dorina Lazar & Michel M. Denuit, 2009. "A multivariate time series approach to projected life tables," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 806-823, November.
  39. Boente, Graciela & Parada, Daniela, 2023. "Robust estimation for functional quadratic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
  40. Rebecca Folkman Gleditsch & Astri Syse, 2020. "Ways to project fertility in Europe. Perceptions of current practices and outcomes," Discussion Papers 929, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  41. Sven Otto & Nazarii Salish, 2022. "Approximate Factor Models for Functional Time Series," Papers 2201.02532, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  42. Bernard Baffour & James Raymer, 2019. "Estimating multiregional survivorship probabilities for sparse data: An application to immigrant populations in Australia, 1981–2011," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(18), pages 463-502.
  43. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2010. "A comparison of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  44. Mammen, Enno & Martínez-Miranda, María Dolores & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vogt, Michael, 2021. "Calendar effect and in-sample forecasting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 31-52.
  45. Michel Denuit, 2009. "Life Anuities with Stochastic Survival Probabilities: A Review," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 463-489, September.
  46. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
  47. Won-Ki Seo, 2020. "Functional Principal Component Analysis for Cointegrated Functional Time Series," Papers 2011.12781, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
  48. Han Shang, 2014. "A survey of functional principal component analysis," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 98(2), pages 121-142, April.
  49. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
  50. Vanella, Patrizio, 2017. "Age- and Sex-Specific Fertility in Germany until the Year 2040 - The Impact of International Migration," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-606, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  51. Carlo G. Camarda & Ugofilippo Basellini, 2021. "Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 569-602, July.
  52. M�rcio Poletti Laurini, 2014. "Dynamic functional data analysis with non-parametric state space models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 142-163, January.
  53. Atefeh Zamani & Hossein Haghbin & Maryam Hashemi & Rob J. Hyndman, 2022. "Seasonal functional autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 197-218, March.
  54. Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "Mortality Forecasting with the Lee–Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 97-120, March.
  55. D’Amato, Valeria & Di Lorenzo, Emilia & Haberman, Steven & Sagoo, Pretty & Sibillo, Marilena, 2018. "De-risking strategy: Longevity spread buy-in," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 124-136.
  56. Hong Li & Yanlin Shi, 2021. "Mortality Forecasting with an Age-Coherent Sparse VAR Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
  57. Israel Martínez‐Hernández & Marc G. Genton, 2021. "Nonparametric trend estimation in functional time series with application to annual mortality rates," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 866-878, September.
  58. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
  59. Haolun Shi & Jiguo Cao, 2022. "Robust Functional Principal Component Analysis Based on a New Regression Framework," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 523-543, September.
  60. Mestekemper, Thomas & Windmann, Michael & Kauermann, Göran, 2010. "Functional hourly forecasting of water temperature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 684-699, October.
  61. Cuixia Liu & Yanlin Shi, 2023. "Extensions of the Lee–Carter model to project the data‐driven rotation of age‐specific mortality decline and forecast coherent mortality rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 813-834, July.
  62. Hong Li & Johnny Siu-Hang Li, 2017. "Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 1073-1095, June.
  63. Aguilera, Ana M. & Escabias, Manuel & Valderrama, Mariano J., 2008. "Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3187-3197, February.
  64. Marcus Ebeling, 2018. "How Has the Lower Boundary of Human Mortality Evolved, and Has It Already Stopped Decreasing?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1887-1903, October.
  65. Vanella, Patrizio & Deschermeier, Philipp, 2017. "Ein stochastisches Prognosemodell internationaler Migration in Deutschland," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-605, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  66. Carl Schmertmann, 2021. "D-splines: Estimating rate schedules using high-dimensional splines with empirical demographic penalties," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(45), pages 1085-1114.
  67. Adrian E. Raftery & Nevena Lalic & Patrick Gerland, 2014. "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(27), pages 795-822.
  68. Katrien Antonio & Anastasios Bardoutsos & Wilbert Ouburg, 2015. "Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations," Working Papers Department of Accountancy, Finance and Insurance (AFI), Leuven 485564, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Accountancy, Finance and Insurance (AFI), Leuven.
  69. Dennis Schroers, 2024. "Robust Functional Data Analysis for Stochastic Evolution Equations in Infinite Dimensions," Papers 2401.16286, arXiv.org.
  70. Hainaut, Donatien & Denuit, Michel, 2019. "Wavelet-based feature-engineering for mortality projection," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  71. Guibert, Quentin & Lopez, Olivier & Piette, Pierrick, 2019. "Forecasting mortality rate improvements with a high-dimensional VAR," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 255-272.
  72. Li, Han & Hyndman, Rob J., 2021. "Assessing mortality inequality in the U.S.: What can be said about the future?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 152-162.
  73. Goia, Aldo & May, Caterina & Fusai, Gianluca, 2010. "Functional clustering and linear regression for peak load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 700-711, October.
  74. Guillermo Vinue & Irene Epifanio, 2021. "Robust archetypoids for anomaly detection in big functional data," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 15(2), pages 437-462, June.
  75. Hatzopoulos, P. & Haberman, S., 2009. "A parameterized approach to modeling and forecasting mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 103-123, February.
  76. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
  77. Yang, Sharon S. & Yue, Jack C. & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2010. "Modeling longevity risks using a principal component approach: A comparison with existing stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 254-270, February.
  78. Jorge Miguel Bravo & Mercedes Ayuso & Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2021. "Intergenerational Actuarial Fairness when Longevity Increases: Amending the Retirement Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 9408, CESifo.
  79. Kung, Ko-Lun & MacMinn, Richard D. & Kuo, Weiyu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2022. "Multi-population mortality modeling: When the data is too much and not enough," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 41-55.
  80. Nurul Aityqah Yaacob & Jamil J. Jaber & Dharini Pathmanathan & Sadam Alwadi & Ibrahim Mohamed, 2021. "Hybrid of the Lee-Carter Model with Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform Filters in Forecasting Mortality Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-11, September.
  81. Graciela Boente & Matías Salibian-Barrera, 2015. "S -Estimators for Functional Principal Component Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(511), pages 1100-1111, September.
  82. Feng, Lingbing & Shi, Yanlin & Chang, Le, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with a hyperbolic spatial temporal VAR model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 255-273.
  83. Ainhoa-Elena Léger & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 769-798, November.
  84. Thomas Url & Rob J Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  85. Han Li & Colin O’Hare, 2019. "Mortality Forecasting: How Far Back Should We Look in Time?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, February.
  86. Montes, Francisco & Sala, Ramón, 2012. "Equilibrio competitivo en Liga española de futbol de Primera División: Un test de Montecarlo basado en datos funcionales/Competitive Balance in the First Division Spanish Soccer League: A Montecarlo T," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 513-526, Agosto.
  87. Hainaut, Donatien & Denuit, Michel, 2020. "Wavelet-based feature-engineering for mortality projection," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2020001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  88. Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y., 2021. "Forecasting regional long-run energy demand: A functional coefficient panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  89. Marcus Christiansen, 2012. "Multistate models in health insurance," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(2), pages 155-186, June.
  90. Tomas, Julien & Planchet, Frédéric, 2015. "Prospective mortality tables: Taking heterogeneity into account," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 169-190.
  91. Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
  92. Phillip A. Jang & David S. Matteson, 2023. "Spatial correlation in weather forecast accuracy: a functional time series approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 1215-1229, September.
  93. Ayuso, Mercedes & Bravo, Jorge M. & Holzmann, Robert, 2021. "Getting life expectancy estimates right for pension policy: period versus cohort approach," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 212-231, April.
  94. Deschermeier Philipp, 2014. "Prognose der Anzahl der Erwerbspersonen," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 50-65, October.
  95. Syazreen Shair & Sachi Purcal & Nick Parr, 2017. "Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, March.
  96. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2020. "Forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy in the year of Covid-19," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2020/1, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
  97. Rob J. Hyndman & Han Lin Shang, 2008. "Rainbow plots, Bagplots and Boxplots for Functional Data," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  98. Rebecca F. Gleditsch & Adrian F. Rogne & Astri Syse & Michael Thomas, 2021. "The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections," Discussion Papers 948, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  99. Lingbing Feng & Yanlin Shi, 2018. "Forecasting mortality rates: multivariate or univariate models?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 289-318, September.
  100. Xie, Haihan & Kong, Linglong, 2023. "Gaussian copula function-on-scalar regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert space," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
  101. Ka Kin Lam & Bo Wang, 2021. "Robust Non-Parametric Mortality and Fertility Modelling and Forecasting: Gaussian Process Regression Approaches," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, March.
  102. Yuan Gao & Han Lin Shang, 2017. "Multivariate Functional Time Series Forecasting: Application to Age-Specific Mortality Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, March.
  103. Han Lin Shang & Yang Yang & Fearghal Kearney, 2019. "Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: functional time series methods with dynamic updating," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 331-354, November.
  104. Kehui Chen & Hans-Georg Müller, 2012. "Modeling Repeated Functional Observations," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1599-1609, December.
  105. Cristina Rueda-Sabater & Pedro Alvarez-Esteban, 2008. "The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1053-1070.
  106. Shang Han Lin, 2020. "A Comparison of Hurst Exponent Estimators in Long-range Dependent Curve Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-39, January.
  107. Gabriella Piscopo & Marina Resta, 2017. "Applying spectral biclustering to mortality data," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13, April.
  108. Rodney V. Fonseca & Aluísio Pinheiro, 2020. "Wavelet estimation of the dimensionality of curve time series," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(5), pages 1175-1204, October.
  109. Canale, Antonio & Vantini, Simone, 2016. "Constrained functional time series: Applications to the Italian gas market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1340-1351.
  110. Djehiche, Boualem & Löfdahl, Björn, 2014. "Risk aggregation and stochastic claims reserving in disability insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-108.
  111. Li, Han & O’Hare, Colin, 2017. "Semi-parametric extensions of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model: A one-dimensional kernel smoothing approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 166-176.
  112. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
  113. Bastian Schäfer, 2021. "Bandwidth selection for the Local Polynomial Double Conditional Smoothing under Spatial ARMA Errors," Working Papers CIE 146, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
  114. Li, Hong & Shi, Yanlin, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with international linkages: A global vector-autoregression approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 59-75.
  115. Péter Vékás, 2020. "Rotation of the age pattern of mortality improvements in the European Union," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 1031-1048, September.
  116. Joanne Ellison & Erengul Dodd & Jonathan J. Forster, 2020. "Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 829-856, June.
  117. Andreas Niemeyer, 2015. "Safety Margins for Systematic Biometric and Financial Risk in a Semi-Markov Life Insurance Framework," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, January.
  118. Thomas Url & Rob J. Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models," WIFO Working Papers 510, WIFO.
  119. Tickle Leonie & Booth Heather, 2014. "The Longevity Prospects of Australian Seniors: An Evaluation of Forecast Method and Outcome," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, July.
  120. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Peter Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer & Jonathan Forster, 2015. "Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1059, June.
  121. Han Lin Shang & Yang Yang, 2021. "Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 1-24, March.
  122. Azizur Rahman & Depeng Jiang, 2023. "Forecasting Canadian Age-Specific Mortality Rates: Application of Functional Time Series Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-14, September.
  123. Luis Alfonso Menéndez-García & Paulino José García-Nieto & Esperanza García-Gonzalo & Fernando Sánchez Lasheras & Laura Álvarez-de-Prado & Antonio Bernardo-Sánchez, 2023. "Method for the Detection of Functional Outliers Applied to Quality Monitoring Samples in the Vicinity of El Musel Seaport in the Metropolitan Area of Gijón (Northern Spain)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-23, June.
  124. Farah Yasmeen & Rob J Hyndman & Bircan Erbas, 2010. "Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women: A functional approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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  147. Zafar, Raja Fawad & Qayyum, Abdul & Ghouri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation using Functional Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 67208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  163. Gao, Yuan & Shang, Han Lin & Yang, Yanrong, 2019. "High-dimensional functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 232-243.
  164. Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2019. "Smooth constrained mortality forecasting," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(38), pages 1091-1130.
  165. Dai, Wenlin & Genton, Marc G., 2019. "Directional outlyingness for multivariate functional data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 50-65.
  166. Ševčíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E., 2016. "bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 75(i05).
  167. Jorge Barrientos Marin & Laura Marquez Marulanda & Fernando Villada Duque, 2023. "Analyzing Electricity Demand in Colombia: A Functional Time Series Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 75-84, January.
  168. Norkhairunnisa Redzwan & Rozita Ramli, 2022. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Research on Stochastic Mortality Modelling and Forecasting," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
  169. Haixu Wang & Jiguo Cao, 2023. "Nonlinear prediction of functional time series," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), August.
  170. Shang, Han Lin, 2013. "Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with unknown error density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 185-198.
  171. Germán Aneiros-Pérez & Philippe Vieu, 2013. "Testing linearity in semi-parametric functional data analysis," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 413-434, April.
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  173. Li, Han & Li, Hong & Lu, Yang & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2019. "A forecast reconciliation approach to cause-of-death mortality modeling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 122-133.
  174. Dowd, Kevin & Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2010. "Evaluating the goodness of fit of stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 255-265, December.
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  176. Fraiman, Ricardo & Pateiro-López, Beatriz, 2012. "Quantiles for finite and infinite dimensional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-14.
  177. Mercedes Ayuso & Jorge M. Bravo & Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2021. "Automatic Indexation of the Pension Age to Life Expectancy: When Policy Design Matters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-28, May.
  178. Shang, Han Lin & Smith, Peter W.F. & Bijak, Jakub & Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, 2016. "A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 629-649.
  179. Martínez-Hernández, Israel & Genton, Marc G. & González-Farías, Graciela, 2019. "Robust depth-based estimation of the functional autoregressive model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 66-79.
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  182. Moliner, Jesús & Epifanio, Irene, 2019. "Robust multivariate and functional archetypal analysis with application to financial time series analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 519(C), pages 195-208.
  183. Rachel WINGENBACH & Jong-Min KIM & Hojin JUNG, 2020. "Living Longer in High Longevity Risk," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 47-86, March.
  184. He, Lingyu & Huang, Fei & Shi, Jianjie & Yang, Yanrong, 2021. "Mortality forecasting using factor models: Time-varying or time-invariant factor loadings?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 14-34.
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  186. van der Linde, Angelika, 2008. "Variational Bayesian functional PCA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 517-533, December.
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  188. George Atsalakis & Dimitrios Nezis & George Matalliotakis & Camelia Ioana Ucenic & Christos Skiadas, 2008. "Forecasting Mortality Rate Using a Neural Network with Fuzzy Inference System," Working Papers 0806, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  189. Valeria D’Amato & Steven Haberman & Maria Russolillo, 2012. "The Stratified Sampling Bootstrap for Measuring the Uncertainty in Mortality Forecasts," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 135-148, March.
  190. Vanella, Patrizio, 2016. "The Total Fertility Rate in Germany until 2040 - A Stochastic Principal Components Projection based on Age-specific Fertility Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-579, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
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