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Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

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  • Han Lin Shang

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Abstract

Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), we compare the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2012-10
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    File URL: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp10-12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    2. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310, October.
    3. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214, July.
    4. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    5. Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
    6. Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Functional data analysis; functional principal component analysis; forecast accuracy comparison; random walk with drift; random walk; ARIMA model;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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