Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods
Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), we compare the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.
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| Length: | 28 pages |
| Date of creation: | 16 Apr 2012 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Handle: | RePEc:msh:ebswps:2012-10 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia Phone: +61 3 99052489 Fax: +61 3 99055474 Web page: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics Email: More information through EDIRC
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| Order Information: | Web: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
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- Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007.
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Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006.
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Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
- Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214, July.
- Heather Booth & Rob J Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006.
"Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
13/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310, October.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007.
"Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
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