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Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

  • Han Lin Shang

    ()

Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), we compare the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2012/wp10-12.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 10/12.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 16 Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2012-10
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  1. Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  2. Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, . "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i03).
  3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
  4. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310, October.
  5. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214, July.
  6. Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
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