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Cohort postponement and period measures

Author

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  • Joshua R. Goldstein

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Thomas Cassidy

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

We introduce a new class of models in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. We show how this model fits into a general framework of period and cohort postponement that includes the existing models in the literature, notably those of Bongaarts and Feeney and Kohler and Philipov. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo-adjusted measure of period total fertility in the absence of observed shifts. Simulation reveals that when postponement is governed by cohorts, the cohort-based indicator outperforms the Bongaarts and Feeney model that is now in widespread use. The cohort-based model is applied to fertility in several modern populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua R. Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy, 2010. "Cohort postponement and period measures," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-015
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Germán Rodriguez, 2006. "Demographic translation and tempo effects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(6), pages 85-110.
    2. Kenneth Land, 2001. "A sensitivity analysis of the bongaarts-feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 17-28, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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